It's The Economy Stupid: CPI. Inflation???

Economic Event	Period	Economic Survey	Actual Reported	Original Prior	Revised Prior
Consumer Price Index MoM	JUN	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%
CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM	JUN	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Consumer Price Index YoY	JUN	1.6%	1.8%	1.4%
CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY	JUN	1.6%	1.6%	1.7%
CPI Core Index SA	JUN	223.597	233.643	233.267
Consumer Price Index NSA	JUN	223.431	233.504	232.945
Industrial Production	JUN	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
Capacity Utilization	JUN	77.7%	77.8%	77.6%	77.7%
Manufacturing Production	JUN	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%

 

CPI surprised on the upside, exceeding economists’ estimates.  But that’s not to say inflation is raging.  Far from it.  CPI is at a 1.8% annual rate.  1.6% ex food & energy.  Inflation ain’t our problem.

 

Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and Manufacturing Production were all pretty much in line with economists’ expectations. 

 

This morning’s releases produced yawns for all the way around.  Gonna need some dark roast to get going this morning.

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

225-342-0013

jbroussard@treasury.state.la.us

 

It's The Economy Stupid: Market Close

 

Stocks were up!  That gave the S&P 500 its longest winning streak since January, as better-than-estimated manufacturing data and Citigroup Inc. earnings overshadowed disappointing retail sales.

 

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 actually set new record highs, even though it didn’t really feel like a record kind of day.

     

Description	Ticker	Last	Change	% Chg Today	% Chg 1Year
STOCK MARKETS
Dow Jones Industrial Average	INDU Index	15484.260	19.9600	0.1291	21.1877
S&P 500 Index	SPX Index	1682.500	2.3100	0.1375	23.9969
NASDAQ 100 Index	NDX Index	3079.851	0.7770	0.0252	19.1446
NASDAQ Composite Index	CCMP Index	3607.492	7.4120	0.2059	24.0340
Russell 3000 Index	RAY Index	1003.600	1.9500	0.1947	25.3043
Russell 1000 Index (Large Cap)	RIY Index	933.830	1.4400	0.1544	24.8970
Russell 2000 Index (Small Cap)	RTY Index	1043.300	6.7800	0.6541	30.2513
Wilshire 5000 Total Market	W5000 Index	17843.960	46.9200	0.2636	25.4708
TREASURIES	% Yield
3 Month Treasury	0.0253		-0.0100	-33.3333
6 Month Treasury	0.0659		-0.0050	-7.6923
2 Year Treasury	0.3309	100.086	0.0156	0.0156
5 Year Treasury	1.3799	99.977	0.1875	0.1879
10 Year Treasury	2.5428	93.156	0.3438	0.3704
30 Year Treasury	3.5977	86.859	0.4688	0.5426
ENERGY
Crude Oil, Brent Index	Brent Crude	109.080	0.2700	0.2481	10.3623
Crude Oil, Louisiana Lt. Sweet	LA Lt Sweet	112.020	1.1200	1.0099	7.4000
Natural Gas, Henry Hub Index	Nat Gas	3.670	0.0260	0.7135	0.8789
PRECIOUS METALS
Spot Gold $/oz	GOLD	1285.110	-0.5900	-0.0459	-19.1659
Spot Silver $/oz	SILVER	19.975	0.0388	0.1946	-26.8728
CURRENCIES
Euro	EUR Curncy	0.766	0.0002	0.0261	-6.0744
Japanese Yen	JPY Curncy	99.750	0.5300	0.5342	-20.9424
British Pound	GBP Curncy	0.662	0.0003	0.0453	3.5335
Swiss Franc	CHF Curncy	0.948	0.0016	0.1690	3.2275
Canadian Dollar	CAD Curncy	1.042	0.0026	0.2501	-2.6008
Chinese Renminbi	CNY Curncy	6.138	0.0003	0.0049	3.9428
FOREIGN INDICIES
FTSE 100 INDEX	UK	6586.110	41.1700	0.6290	16.2365
CAC 40 INDEX	FRANCE	3878.580	23.4900	0.6093	21.9369
DAX INDEX	GERMANY	8234.810	22.0400	0.2684	25.5862
NIKKEI 225 INDEX	JAPAN	14506.250	33.6700	0.2326	66.2775
HANG SENG INDEX	HONG KONG	21303.310	26.0300	0.1223	11.4112
SHANGHAI COMP INDEX	CHINA	2059.390	19.9040	0.9759	-4.1232

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

225-342-0013

jbroussard@treasury.state.la.us

 

It's The Economy Stupid: Retail Sales Numbers Are Bad

Economic Event	Period	Economic Survey	Actual Reported	Original Prior	Revised Prior
Empire Manufacturing	JUL	5.00	9.46	7.84
Advance Retail Sales	JUN	0.8%	0.1%	0.6%	0.5%
Retail Sales Less Autos	JUN	0.5%	0.0%	0.3%
Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas	JUN	0.4%	-0.1%	0.3%
Retail Sales "Control Group"	JUN	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%

 

Empire Manufacturing number was great.  Retail Sales were disappointing across the board.  The Retail Sales numbers were bad.  There really was no bright spot in the Retail Sales numbers.

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

225-342-0013

jbroussard@treasury.state.la.us

 

It's The Economy Stupid: PPI is hot!

 

Economic Event	Period	Economic Survey	Actual Reported	Original Prior	Revised Prior
Producer Price Index MoM	JUN	0.5%	0.8%	0.5%
PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM	JUN	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Producer Price Index YoY	JUN	2.1%	2.5%	1.7%
PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY	JUN	1.6%	1.7%	1.7%

 

Drop it like it’s hot.

 

PPI was higher than economist’s expectations across the board.  Month over Month, Year over Year, with Food & Energy or without Food & Energy.

 

PPI, which measures wholesale prices in the U.S. rose more than projected in June, reflecting higher costs for energy and automobiles.   The 0.8 percent gain in the producer price index was the biggest since September and followed a 0.5 percent rise the prior month, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 73 economists called for a 0.5 percent gain. The so-called core measure, which excludes volatile food and fuel, increased 0.2

percent, also more than forecast.

 

The data also showed limited cost pressures at the earlier stages of production, indicating demand for raw materials is being restrained by slower growth in China and weakness in Europe. That helps explain why Federal Reserve policy makers project inflation is likely to be at or below the central bank’s goal.

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

225-342-0013

jbroussard@treasury.state.la.us