On April 28th, 2012, I will be running the Baton Rouge Get Your Rear In Gear 5K; an event hosted by the Colon Cancer Coalition.
I am running to honor my co-worker Diane Spurlin, my good friend John L. Daniel, Deanna Habetz ~ the matriarch of the Habetz clan of Roberts Cove, (three colon cancer survivors) and to honor the memories of Greg Loney and Reggie Lirette.
Get Your Rear In Gear events are hosted across the country in an effort to generate awareness of colon cancer, raise funds to provide screening to those who can't otherwise afford it, and offer support for those who have been affected by the disease. 75% of the funds I raise will remain right here in the Louisiana.
Please consider making a donation! Visit my Get Your Rear In Gear page at
http://events.getyourrearingear.com/site/TR/BatonRouge/General?px=1080264&pg=personal&fr_id=1200
where you can make a donation online. Every dollar counts.
For those of you who have already made a donation, thank you very much! Your generosity truely humbles me.
If you'd like to learn more about Get Your Rear In Gear events, or the disease and prevention, visit the website at www.getyourrearingear.com<http://www.getyourrearingear.com>. Many believe that colon cancer is only a disease of middle-aged men; that is not the case. I hope that you'll help spread awareness and share this link with your loved ones.
Thank you for your consideration and support.
John Broussard
Friday, April 27, 2012
Thursday, April 26, 2012
It's The Economy Stupid: Jobless Claims
Let’s just say what it is. Bad. It’s bad Jobless numbers. Initial Jobless Claims were worse than expected. Continuing Claims were worse than expected. The prior period Initial Jobless Claims numbers were revised upward. The prior period Continuing Claims numbers were revised upward.
Economic Event | Period | Economic Survey | Actual Reported | Original Prior | Revised Prior |
Initial Jobless Claims | APR 21 | 375K | 388K | 386K | 389K |
Continuing Claims | APR 14 | 3293K | 3315K | 3297K | 3312K |
So, to sum this up. The current period Jobless numbers were bad and the previous period Jobless numbers were revised bader.
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
Get Your Rear In Gear 5K for the Colon Cancer Coalition
On April 28th, 2012, I will be running the Baton Rouge Get Your Rear In Gear 5K; an event hosted by the Colon Cancer Coalition.
I am running to honor my co-worker Diane Spurlin, my good friend John L. Daniel, Deanna Habetz ~ the matriarch of the Habetz clan of Roberts Cove, (three colon cancer survivors) and to honor the memories of Greg Loney and Reggie Lirette.
Get Your Rear In Gear events are hosted across the country in an effort to generate awareness of colon cancer, raise funds to provide screening to those who can't otherwise afford it, and offer support for those who have been affected by the disease. 75% of the funds I raise will remain right here in the Louisiana.
Please consider making a donation! Visit my Get Your Rear In Gear page at
http://events.getyourrearingear.com/site/TR/BatonRouge/General?px=1080264&pg=personal&fr_id=1200
where you can make a donation online. Every dollar counts.
If you'd like to learn more about Get Your Rear In Gear events, or the disease and prevention, visit the website at www.getyourrearingear.com. Many believe that colon cancer is only a disease of middle-aged men; that is not the case. I hope that you'll help spread awareness and share this link with your loved ones.
Thank you for your consideration and support.
John Broussard
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
It's The Economy Stupid: No Change In Interest Rates
In what is perhaps the least surprising piece of news to come out in recent memory, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decided No Change In Interest Rates. They are going to leave the Fed Funds Target Rate at zero to 0.25 percent. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker dissented for the third meeting in a row. Lacker has said he believes the first increase in interest rates will likely be necessary in 2013. The Fed first lowered its target interest rate to a range of zero to 0.25 percent in December 2008, and it has not raised rates since then.
Federal Reserve policy makers said they expect growth to gradually accelerate, while refraining from new actions to lower borrowing costs.
“The committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement today at the
conclusion of a two-day meeting today in Washington. “Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed.”
Policy makers led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke are holding off on additional steps to boost the economy amid signs the more than two-year expansion is gaining strength. Still, the jobless rate isn’t declining fast enough to satisfy central bankers, who repeated their view today that borrowing costs are likely to remain “exceptionally low” at least through late 2014.
“Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook,” according to today’s statement. The Fed has cited the risk from strains in global markets in its previous five meetings. In March it said those strains had “eased.”
Operation Twist
The central bank said it would continue its swap of $400 billion of short-term debt with long-term debt to lengthen the average maturity of its holdings, a move dubbed Operation Twist.
The Fed is scheduled to complete the program at the end of June. The Fed also didn’t alter its policy of reinvesting its portfolio of maturing housing debt into agency mortgage-backed
securities. Inflation “has picked up somewhat, mainly reflecting higher prices of crude oil and gasoline,” the Fed said today. Gas prices will affect inflation “only temporarily,” it said.
So…looks like that money market fund is going to pay squat for a little bit longer.
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
Ph: 225-342-0013
Fx: 225-342-9721
Email: jbroussard@treasusry.state.la.us
Street Address:
445 North Blvd, 7th Floor
Baton Rouge, LA 70802
Mailing Address:
P.O. Box 44154 Capitol Station
Baton Rouge, LA 70804-4154
Physical Location:
One City Plaza, 7th Floor
Corner of North Blvd & 4th Street
Exit 1B I-110 Convention Street,
Turn Left to get to North Blvd,
Turn Right on North Blvd
Get Your Rear In Gear 5K for the Colon Cancer Coalition
On April 28th, 2012, I will be running the Baton Rouge Get Your Rear In Gear 5K; an event hosted by the Colon Cancer Coalition.
I am running to honor my co-worker Diane Spurlin, my good friend John L. Daniel, Deanna Habetz ~ the matriarch of the Habetz clan of Roberts Cove, (three colon cancer survivors) and to honor the memories of Greg Loney and Reggie Lirette.
Get Your Rear In Gear events are hosted across the country in an effort to generate awareness of colon cancer, raise funds to provide screening to those who can't otherwise afford it, and offer support for those who have been affected by the disease. 75% of the funds I raise will remain right here in the Louisiana.
Please visit my Get Your Rear In Gear page at
http://events.getyourrearingear.com/site/TR/BatonRouge/General?px=1080264&pg=personal&fr_id=1200
and consider making a donation online, by mail, or phone. Every dollar counts.
If you'd like to learn more about Get Your Rear In Gear events, or the disease and prevention, visit the website at www.getyourrearingear.com. Many believe that colon cancer is only a disease of middle-aged men; that is not the case. I hope that you'll help spread awareness and share this link with your loved ones.
Thank you for your consideration and support.
John Broussard
It's The Economy Stupid: Durable Goods
Okay, there’s no sugar coating the Durable Goods numbers. They are UGLY! This ain’t good news. No matter how you look at it, it’s bad. Okay, the Capital Goods Orders were not as bad, with some bad and some good. But the overall picture is not bright for the economy.
Economic Event | Period | Economic Survey | Actual Reported | Original Prior | Revised Prior |
Durable Goods Orders | MAR | -1.7% | -4.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% |
Durables Ex Transportation | MAR | 0.5% | -1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% |
Cap Goods Orders Non Def & Ex Air | MAR | 1.0% | -0.8% | 1.2% | 2.8% |
Cap Goods Ship Non Def & Ex Air | MAR | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | |
Orders for U.S. durable goods fell in March by the most in three years, indicating manufacturing will contribute less to growth this year.
Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years dropped 4.2 percent, the biggest decrease since January 2009, after a revised 1.9 percent gain the prior month. Economists forecast a 1.7 percent decline, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
Slowdowns in Europe and China may limit exports, while business investment cools after the strongest 10-quarter performance in a decade, leading to a slowdown in manufacturing.
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
Ph: 225-342-0013
Fx: 225-342-9721
Email: jbroussard@treasusry.state.la.us
Street Address:
445 North Blvd, 7th Floor
Baton Rouge, LA 70802
Mailing Address:
P.O. Box 44154 Capitol Station
Baton Rouge, LA 70804-4154
Physical Location:
One City Plaza, 7th Floor
Corner of North Blvd & 4th Street
Exit 1B I-110 Convention Street,
Turn Left to get to North Blvd,
Turn Right on North Blvd
Monday, April 23, 2012
It's The Economy Stupid: Social Security To Exhaust Funds???
I love government math! It’s so witty!
YOU CAN’T MAKE THIS STUFF UP
Medicare to exhaust funds in 2024, Social Security to exhaust funds in 2035, both earlier than previously thought.
The Social Security program will exhaust its trust fund in 2035 and have to start reducing benefits to senior citizens unless Congress intervenes, its trustees said in a report released today. The trustees of Social Security and Medicare are the secretaries of the departments of Treasury, Labor, and Health and Human Services; as well as the Social Security administrator and two public representatives.
The report’s new estimate is three (3) years sooner than projected just last year in 2011!!!
BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!
Social Security’s disability program, which aids 11 million Americans, will run through its trust fund in 2016, two years earlier than predicted.
The combined Social Security trust funds would be depleted in 2033, three years earlier than projected.
AND THEN TERE IS MEDICARE…
The main fund that supports the Medicare health-care program for the elderly will run dry in 2024, the report said.
ANY SOLUTIONS? ANYONE? ANYONE?
House Republicans propose replacing Medicare with government subsidies to help seniors buy private insurance. Democrats and the Obama administration rejected that plan and
want to find ways to shore up the program. Neither side has offered a plan for Social Security, which at a 2011 cost of $736 billion is the U.S. government’s largest single program.
Social Security has two parts: the old-age and survivors insurance program, which supports senior citizens, and the disability insurance program. Each has a trust fund financed
primarily by a payroll tax that is split between workers and employers. Medicare is funded through a combination of payroll taxes, beneficiaries’ premiums and general tax revenue.
It seems that the most recent addition to the problem was the fact that Congress cut the payroll tax for workers by 2 percentage points for 2011 and 2012 in an effort to stimulate the economy. The cost was added to the U.S. deficit and exasperated the funding of the trust funds.
BASIC MATH, VERY, VERY BASIC MATH
The disability program took in $106 billion last year, while spending $132 billion, according to the report. At the end of the year, it had $154 billion left in its trust fund. These facts are not in dispute. That’s what the government bean counters say.
Okay, let’s look at the very, very basic math. I am going to do this so that even people in Washington DC can follow (I know Sister Caesarea is smiling down at me from Heaven right now):
+ $106 Billion Cash Inflow
- $132 Billion Expenses
= -$26 Billion Deficit In One (1) Year
Looks like negative cash flow to me, but I am not a congressman.
Okay, now stay with me because now we are going to do some real cutting edge math, it’s called DIVISION!:
+ $154 Billion Fund Balance
/ -$26 Billion Deficit Per Year
= 5.9 Years To Exhaust The Fund
I hope I haven’t lost you yet. Now we are going to do some more addition. This is not a trick question. What year are we in today. 2012? Right? Please tell me you got that question right.
+ 2012 Current Year
+ 5.9 Years To Exhaust The Fund
= 2017.9, so let’s just call it 2018.
2018 is not 2024, it’s not 2033, it’s not 2035.
Some people look at this and think, “What’s wrong with these people.” I look at it and I see things differently. I think it takes great imagination to look at these numbers and come up with their estimates!
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
Friday, April 20, 2012
It's The Economy Stupid: Another Slow News Day
Okay, so far there’s not much in the way of economic news today. So here is some random sh…..stuff.
-----------------------------------
The Bank of Japan sees protecting its own balance sheet as more important than ending deflation and spurring the world’s third-largest economy, according to the former minister who led a clean-up of the nation’s banks. “This isn’t difficult -- it’s Economics 101,” Heizo Takenaka, 61, said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday. “They think the balance sheet is more important than Japan’s economy. That’s why they are ok with leaving deflation,” said Takenaka, who served in former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s cabinet.
-----------------------------------
Prior to 2008 it seems that the main requirement for qualifying for a home mortgage was that the borrower have a heartbeat. Those no doc loans didn’t work out so well – for all of us. To prevent this from happening again, the Dodd-Frank financial-reform act of 2010 required that changes be made. Mortgage instruments as “interest-only”, “negative-amortization”, and “no doc” loans, which allowed marginal borrowers to buy more house than they could have ever possibly afforded. So Dodd-Frank mandated a rule requiring institutions that place securities in the asset-backed secondary market to have a financial stake in ensuring that mortgage products are quality products. With a summer deadline for this new “Ability to Repay” rule, there is heightened concern in the housing industry that a highly restrictive regulation will cut more borrowers out of the market than the situation warrants.
So in typical government fashion, they will create a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist. The subprime loans and no-income-verification loans are gone. The underwriting criteria currently in place are tough enough. New regulations that are too restrictive will smother the little improvement we’ve seen in the housing market.
------------------------------------
The global economic recovery is facing a critical moment although some optimism has returned in recent months, and collective global action is critical for sustaining the recovery momentum, World Bank chief economist Justin Yifu Lin has said.
Weak recovery will likely resume in major advanced economies, as lingering structural challenges including low industrial capacity utilization rates, high unemployment rates and large public debts are weighing down the growth, Lin said in a recent interview with Xinhua prior to the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and its sister organization the World Bank.
Structural reforms targeted at resolving long-term growth bottlenecks are crucial and should be carried out in a forward-looking manner, he said on the sidelines of a recent book launch event hosted by the Washington-based think-tank Center for Global Development.
The extent to which the IMF's financial firewall needs to be strengthened is a hot issue of the spring meetings and is of great importance to restoring market confidence and bolstering the fragile global recovery, noted Lin, also the World Bank's senior vice president.
Another highlight of the spring meetings would be pushing forward an array of development priorities, including job generation, social safety nets, financial inclusion, protecting the world's most vulnerable and advancing Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
---------------------------------
And just in case you’ve been lulled into thinking all is well in Euro land….
The head of the International Monetary Fund says the officials managing Europe's debt bailout fund should consider providing financial support directly to European banks that need more capital reserves.
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Thursday that supplying more capital directly to European banks could help ease the debt crisis.
Speaking at a news conference to open three days of meetings on the global economy, Lagarde noted that the banks can now receive bailout money only from European governments. She said that officials should change that so banks could receive money directly from the European bailout fund.
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
Thursday, April 19, 2012
It's The Economy Stupid: Jobless Claims
Okay, these numbers are not going in the right direction, clearly there is some weakness in employment at present.
Economic Event | Period | Economic Survey | Actual Reported | Original Prior | Revised Prior |
Initial Jobless Claims | APR 14 | 370K | 386K | 380K | 388K |
Continuing Jobless Claims | APR 7 | 3300K | 3297K | 3251K | 3271K |
The Initial Jobless Claims were reported worse than economist’s expectations, and the prior period Initial Jobless Claims number was revised upwards, meaning it was actually worse than originally reported. Continuing Jobless Claims came in right at about economist’s expectations, but once again the prior period Continuing Jobless Claims number was revised upwards, worse than originally reported.
And for all of you who did not stay up last night to see what happened in the Spanish bond auction, it went well. Okay, not great, but it didn’t crater either. Doesn’t mean that Spain’s problems are over. Spain sold all the bonds it wanted at auction on Thursday, though for Spain the cost was rising yields, indicating growing concerns the government will not be able to tame its deficit. Spain sold 1.1 billion euros of a bond maturing Oct. 31, 2014, at an average yield of 3.463 percent. It also tested market appetite for a longer-term benchmark bond, due Jan. 31, 2022, selling 1.4 billion euros at a yield of 5.743 percent, up from 5.403 percent at the last auction in January. Still, the auctions weren’t as bad as feared.
The Euro still has issues.
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
It's The Economy Stupid: NFLball
Okay, apparently there are serious talks going on within the NFL to eliminate kickoffs for NFL football games. What are these people doing to the game I love??? Given what they've done to the rules, the separation in the treatment of the quarterback from the rest of the players on the field, the ever increasing limitations on defense, I think kickoffs become a tipping point for me. Take away kickoffs and it no longer would be 'football'. It would become something else to me. ‘NFLball’ maybe, but not football. NFLball would likely drive me even further away from the pro game.
I know this has nothing to do with Economics. It’s a slow news day.
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
It's The Economy Stupid: Housing Starts (and stops?)
Okay, let’s call the Housing Starts & Building Permits numbers as a mixed bag.
Economic Event | Period | Economic Survey | Actual Reported | Original Prior | Revised Prior |
Housing Starts | MAR | 705K | 654K | 698K | 694K |
Housing Starts MoM | MAR | 1.0% | -5.8% | -1.1% | -2.8% |
Building Permits | MAR | 710K | 747K | 717K | 715K |
Building Permits MoM | MAR | -0.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
The March Housing Starts number was the lowest since October of 2011, and well below the consensus estimate of economists. The Month on Month percentage change kind of fell off the table at -5.8%. That certainly is not good news. The good news is that Building Permits in March were above economists consensus estimates at 747K.
Yeah, let’s call it a mixed bag.
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
Ph: 225-342-0013
Fx: 225-342-9721
Email: jbroussard@treasusry.state.la.us
Street Address:
445 North Blvd, 7th Floor
Baton Rouge, LA 70802
Mailing Address:
P.O. Box 44154 Capitol Station
Baton Rouge, LA 70804-4154
Physical Location:
One City Plaza, 7th Floor
Corner of North Blvd & 4th Street
Exit 1B I-110 Convention Street,
Turn Left to get to North Blvd,
Turn Right on North Blvd
Monday, April 16, 2012
It's The Economy Stupid: But the Fed says there's no inflation...
If we all cut back on eating by 7% we can make the Fed correct!
Eating it:
A basket of meats, cheese and other goodies from the grocery store cost 6.9% more in the first quarter of 2012 than it did a year earlier, according to a report from the American Farm Bureau Federation. As reported by The Los Angeles Times, a group of 16 items—including cheddar cheese, sirloin-tip roast, salad, orange juice and eggs—cost consumers $52.47 during the first three months of the year. During the same period last year, the price was $49.07. In the fourth quarter of 2011, it cost $49.23. Meat, flour, russet potatoes, apples and toasted oat cereal have all become pricier for consumers, according to the report, while just three items in the basket have gotten cheaper: whole milk, white bread and boneless chicken breasts.
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
Friday, April 13, 2012
It's The Economy Stupid: Market Intelligence (an oxymoron?)
Here’s another nugget of intelligence for you. The Fed balance sheet numbers came out showing another SHARP drop in currency swap usage last night - from $46 Billion last Thursday to $32 Billion yesterday. And there has been a steady decline since March 1st when we were at $107 Billion.
And then there’s the brain drain at the Fed’s New York trading operations. Brian Stack is leaving the Fed’s Markets Group. Stack is a key staffer who played a major role in the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. Stack is an economist by trade, with a Ph.D. from MIT. New York Fed President William Dudley said, “Brian’s service to the Bank over the past three years has been critical to our response to the financial crisis and the country’s economic recovery.”
My WAG is that The Fed really sees less danger in the U.S. economy.
What’s WAG? Really? Really! Okay, ‘W’ stands for wild. ‘G’ stand for guess. And ‘A’ stands for something that I have been called on more than one occasion.
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
It's The Economy Stupid: CPI
Economist were expecting LESS inflation as measured by CPI. And the numbers came out just about as expected, no surprises. Let’s call that a good thing.
Economic Event | Period | Economic Survey | Actual Reported | Original Prior | Revised Prior |
CPI MoM | MAR | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM | MAR | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
CPI YoY | MAR | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | |
CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY | MAR | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | |
CPI NSA | MAR | 229.254 | 229.392 | 227.663 | |
CPI Core Index | MAR | | 228.432 | 227.907 | |
Okay, CPI is the broadest of the Government’s price gauges because it includes goods and services. Almost 60 percent of the index covers prices consumers pay for services ranging from medical visits to airline fares, movie tickets and rents.
As defined by CPI, the cost of living in the U.S. increased at a slower pace in March as the run-up in energy prices eased. Lending SOME credence supporting the view of some Federal Reserve policy makers that inflation will ebb.
Here a little nugget in the full report. Three was a 1.3 percent jump in the cost of used cars and trucks, the biggest since December 2009, and it contributed to the increase in the core measure, as did increases in clothing and medical care.
Today’s report showed energy costs increased 0.9 percent down significantly after jumping 3.2 percent in February. Food costs increased 0.2 percent, reflecting broad-based gains.
Lull before the storm? The cost of a gallon of regular gasoline at the pump eased to $3.91 on April 11 from a 10-month high of $3.94 reached a week earlier, according to from AAA, the biggest U.S. auto group.
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)