Thursday, May 31, 2012

It's The Economy Stupid: May we put May behind us?

Okay…the market was kind of sucky in May, and the suckieness was wide spread, and in turn, that has made the last 12 months kind of suck.  Strictly technically speaking of course.  It’s been a tuff year for stock investors.

 

 

Description

Ticker

Last

CHANGE

% Chg Today

Pct Chg 1Yr

 

 

 

 

 

 

STOCK MARKETS

 

 

 

 

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

INDU Index

12393.450

-26.4100

-0.2126

-1.4029

S&P 500 Index

SPX Index

1310.460

-2.8600

-0.2178

-2.4219

NASDAQ Composite Index

CCMP Index

2827.340

-10.0200

-0.3531

-0.2807

Russell 3000 Index

RAY Index

774.610

-1.7700

-0.2280

-3.8635

Russell 2000 Index (Small)

RTY Index

761.820

-0.1800

-0.0236

-10.1945

S&P 400 Mid Cap Index

MID Index

925.540

-2.4100

-0.2597

-7.4701

S&P 600 Small Cap Index

SML Index

428.040

-0.3800

-0.0887

-5.6038

TREASURIES

% Yield

 

 

 

 

3 Month Treasury

0.0710

 

0.0000

0.0000

 

6 Month Treasury

0.1268

 

-0.0100

-7.6923

 

2 Year Treasury

0.2618

99.977

0.0078

0.0078

 

5 Year Treasury

0.6616

99.820

0.1328

0.1332

 

10 Year Treasury

1.5696

101.656

0.4844

0.4788

 

30 Year Treasury

2.6544

107.125

1.2813

1.2105

 

ENERGY

 

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil, Brent Index

Brent Crude

101.820

-1.6500

-1.5947

-10.0521

Crude Oil, Louisiana Lt. Sweet

LA Lt Sweet

98.380

-1.3400

-1.3438

-16.8000

Natural Gas, Henry Hub Index

Nat Gas

2.416

-0.0020

-0.0827

-51.9300

PRECIOUS METALS

 

 

 

 

 

Spot Gold $/oz

GOLD

1564.130

0.7500

0.0480

1.8446

Spot Silver $/oz

SILVER

27.813

-0.0900

-0.3226

-27.7926

CURRENCIES

 

 

 

 

 

Euro

EUR Curncy

1.237

-0.0001

-0.0081

-14.1141

Japanese Yen

JPY Curncy

78.360

-0.7200

-0.9105

4.0327

British Pound

GBP Curncy

1.541

-0.0071

-0.4587

-6.3230

Swiss Franc

CHF Curncy

0.971

0.0002

0.0206

-12.0869

Canadian Dollar

CAD Curncy

1.033

0.0028

0.2718

-6.2252

Chinese Yuan

CNY Curncy

6.370

0.0201

0.3166

1.7207

FOREIGN INDICIES

 

 

 

 

 

FTSE 100 INDEX

UK

5320.860

23.5800

0.4451

-11.1708

CAC 40 INDEX

FRANCE

3017.010

1.4300

0.0474

-24.7054

DAX INDEX

GERMANY

6264.380

-16.4200

-0.2614

-14.1123

NIKKEI 225 INDEX

JAPAN

8542.730

-90.4600

-1.0478

-12.1083

HANG SENG INDEX

HONG KONG

18629.520

-60.7000

-0.3248

-21.1497

 

 

Name

Ticker

Last

1m % Chg

3m % Chg

6m % Chg

YTD % Chg

1y % Chg

S&P 500 Index

SPX Index

1310.92

-6.14

-3.89

5.27

4.39

-2.42

S&P Consumer Discret

S5COND Index

339.78

-5.87

-0.47

11.26

10.11

6.54

S&P Consumer Staples

S5CONS Index

347.33

-1.29

1.80

6.02

3.51

4.58

S&P Energy

S5ENRS Index

476.51

-10.62

-14.51

-9.48

-8.51

-16.47

S&P Financials

S5FINL Index

188.19

-9.32

-5.12

9.12

7.39

-11.69

S&P Health

S5HLTH Index

417.36

-3.89

-0.13

6.70

3.85

0.24

S&P Industrials

S5INDU Index

299.48

-6.36

-6.35

3.40

2.45

-7.72

S&P Info Tech

S5INFT Index

448.8

-7.85

-5.07

8.49

9.48

6.34

S&P Materials

S5MATR Index

213.23

-7.99

-8.81

-1.66

0.72

-13.69

S&P Telecom

S5TELS Index

139.66

2.60

7.97

11.60

7.58

2.43

S&P Utilities

S5UTIL Index

181

-0.13

2.68

1.92

-1.08

5.95

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

Ph:  225-342-0013

Fx:  225-342-9721

Email:  jbroussard@treasusry.state.la.us

Street Address:

445 North Blvd, 7th Floor

Baton Rouge, LA 70802

Mailing Address:

P.O. Box 44154 Capitol Station

Baton Rouge, LA 70804-4154

Physical Location:

One City Plaza, 7th Floor

Corner of North Blvd & 4th Street

Exit 1B I-110 Convention Street,

Turn Left to get to North Blvd,

Turn Right on North Blvd

 

It's The Economy Stupid: Uh Oh! Washington is gonna need more lipstick.

Chicago Purchasing Manager index reported 52.7, much lower than economist’s expectations of 56.8, and last month it was 56.2.  It was 64.0 in February 2012.  52.7 is the lowest number since September 2009.  Numbers greater than 50 signal growth, numbers less than 50 signal contraction.

 

Together with the GDP numbers clearly the economy is starting to feel the effects of the Euro crisis.

 

The 10-Year Treasury blew through the 1.60% barrier and is trading around 1.592%.

 

You can’t put lipstick on this pig.  This is a bad number. BAD, BAD, BAD!

 

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

Ph:  225-342-0013

Fx:  225-342-9721

Email:  jbroussard@treasusry.state.la.us

Street Address:

445 North Blvd, 7th Floor

Baton Rouge, LA 70802

Mailing Address:

P.O. Box 44154 Capitol Station

Baton Rouge, LA 70804-4154

Physical Location:

One City Plaza, 7th Floor

Corner of North Blvd & 4th Street

Exit 1B I-110 Convention Street,

Turn Left to get to North Blvd,

Turn Right on North Blvd

 

It's The Economy Stupid: That's a whole lot of stuff

Okay, so today we have more moving parts than a Swiss watch.  So, let’s make some sense of this stuff

 

Challenger Job Cuts YoY   BAD, HIGHEST NUMBER IN 8 MONTHS

NAPM – Milwaukee    GREAT NUMBER, WAY ABOVE EXPECTATIONS

ADP Employment Change   FEWER JOBS ADDED THAN EXPECTED, NO BIGEE

GDP QoQ Annualized   NOT GOOD, GDP GROWTH DROPS, WE NEED STRONGER GDP GROWTH

Personal Consuption   NOT GOOD, LOWER THAN EXPECTED

GDP Price Index   GOOD, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED

Core PCE QoQ   GOOD, AS EXPECTED

Initial Jobless Claims   BAD, INCREASING CLAIMS AIN’T A GOOD THING

Continuing Claims   NOT SO BAD, LOWER THAN EXPECTED

 

What a mess!  A muddy economic picture at best.  Clearly we ain’t doing great, but then again, we ain’t Europe either.

 

 

Economic Event

Period

Economic Survey

Actual Reported

Original Prior

Revised Prior

Challenger Job Cuts YoY

MAY

 

66.7%

11.2%

 

NAPM - Milwaukee

MAY

53.4

57.7

5290.0%

 

ADP Employment Change

MAY

150K

133K

119K

113K

GDP QoQ Annualized

1Q S

1.9%

1.9%

2.2%

 

Personal Consuption

1Q S

2.9%

2.7%

2.9%

 

GDP Price Index

1Q S

1.5%

1.7%

1.5%

 

Core PCE QoQ

1Q S

2.1%

2.1%

2.1%

 

Initial Jobless Claims

MAY 26

370K

383K

370K

373K

Continuing Claims

MAY 19

3250K

3242K

3260K

3278K

 

 

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

Ph:  225-342-0013

Fx:  225-342-9721

Email:  jbroussard@treasusry.state.la.us

Street Address:

445 North Blvd, 7th Floor

Baton Rouge, LA 70802

Mailing Address:

P.O. Box 44154 Capitol Station

Baton Rouge, LA 70804-4154

Physical Location:

One City Plaza, 7th Floor

Corner of North Blvd & 4th Street

Exit 1B I-110 Convention Street,

Turn Left to get to North Blvd,

Turn Right on North Blvd