Wednesday, February 29, 2012

It's The Economy Stupid: Economy Grows at 3% Annual Rate in 4Q

Today’s economic numbers beat both the previous periods numbers and economist’s forecasts for this period’s numbers.  That’s a good thing.

 

Bernanke will give his semi-annual economic forecast to the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. today.  Who knows is that’s a good thing.

 

Economic Event

Period

Economic Survey

Actual Reported

Original Prior

Revised Prior

MBA Mortgage Applications

FEB 24

-

-0.3%

-4.5%

 

GDP QoQ (Annualized)

4Q S

2.8%

3.0%

2.8%

 

GDP Personal Consumption

4Q S

1.9%

2.1%

2.0%

 

GDP Price Index

4Q S

0.4%

0.9%

0.4%

 

GDP Core Personal Cons QoQ

4Q S

1.1%

1.3%

1.1%

 

 

The U.S. economy expanded more than forecast in the fourth quarter as companies rebuilt inventories in anticipation of growing demand.

 

Gross domestic product climbed at a revised 3 percent annual rate, the most since the second quarter of 2010. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for no change from the

previously reported 2.8 percent gain

 

Income gains in the second half of 2011 were stronger than previously reported as employment growth accelerated, which may set the stage for a pickup in consumer spending that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy.

 

Growth forecasts from the 82 economists surveyed ranged from 2.2 percent to 3.2 percent. The world’s largest economy expanded at a 1.8 percent rate in the prior three months.

 

Consumer spending grew at a 2.1 percent annual rate, little changed from the 2 percent initial estimate and reflecting a pickup in demand for services.

 

In the prior three months, incomes climbed 0.7 percent compared with a 1.9 percent slump that was initially reported. Wages and salaries from July through September rose $107.2

billion, up from the $24.8 billion gain initially reported.    This helped boost the savings rate to 4.5 percent from a previously reported 3.7 percent. In the third quarter, the rate

was 4.6 percent.

 

Inventories contributed the largest boost to growth in the final three months of 2011. Stockpiles added 1.88 percentage points to GDP, compared with a previously estimated 1.9 points.

GDP minus inventories, or final sales, rose 1.1 percent.

 

Factory output rose 0.7 percent in January after a 1.5 percent surge in December, marking the best two-month performance since July-August 2009, Fed data showed earlier this month.

 

 

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

Ph:  225-342-0013

Fx:  225-342-9721

Email:  jbroussard@treasusry.state.la.us

Street Address:

445 North Blvd, 7th Floor

Baton Rouge, LA 70802

Mailing Address:

P.O. Box 44154 Capitol Station

Baton Rouge, LA 70804-4154

Physical Location:

One City Plaza, 7th Floor

Corner of North Blvd & 4th Street

Exit 1B I-110 Convention Street,

Turn Left to get to North Blvd,

Turn Right on North Blvd

 

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

It's The Economy Stupid: Dow 13000

Apple’s stock hit a new high on rumors of the new iPad 3, at $534.90, it is now valued at A HALF A TRILLION DOLLARS.  The closing quote is running 15 minutes late, so far over 19.6 million shares have traded, but that’s being updated as I type.

 

Description

Ticker

Last

CHANGE

% Chg Today

Pct Chg 1Yr

 

 

 

 

 

 

STOCK MARKETS

 

 

 

 

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

INDU Index

13005.120

23.6100

0.1819

6.3721

S&P 500 Index

SPX Index

1372.180

4.5900

0.3356

3.3898

NASDAQ Composite Index

CCMP Index

2986.760

20.6000

0.6945

7.3498

Russell 3000 Index

RAY Index

814.980

1.8800

0.2312

2.9769

Russell 2000 Index (Small)

RTY Index

823.810

-2.8500

-0.3448

0.0425

S&P 400 Mid Cap Index

MID Index

983.950

-1.3700

-0.1390

1.7412

S&P 600 Small Cap Index

SML Index

457.820

-1.3700

-0.2984

5.3828

TREASURIES

% Yield

 

 

 

 

3 Month Treasury

0.1017

 

-0.0050

-5.0000

 

6 Month Treasury

0.1370

 

-0.0100

-7.1429

 

2 Year Treasury

0.2892

99.922

-0.0078

-0.0078

 

5 Year Treasury

0.8382

100.188

0.0391

0.0390

 

10 Year Treasury

1.9341

100.594

-0.0781

-0.0776

 

30 Year Treasury

3.0633

101.188

-0.3281

-0.3232

 

ENERGY

 

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil, Brent Index

Brent

121.800

-2.3700

-1.9087

10.9290

Crude Oil, Louisiana Light Sweet

LA Light Sweet

123.570

-1.6900

-1.3492

6.9700

Natural Gas, Henry Hub Index

Nat Gas

2.529

-0.0740

-2.8429

-46.1112

PRECIOUS METALS

 

 

 

 

 

Spot Gold $/oz

GOLD

1785.520

17.8400

1.0092

26.4984

Spot Silver $/oz

SILVER

36.918

1.5300

4.3236

8.8663

CURRENCIES

 

 

 

 

 

Euro

EUR Curncy

1.347

0.0068

0.5076

-2.4772

Japanese Yen

JPY Curncy

80.480

-0.1200

-0.1489

1.5901

British Pound

GBP Curncy

1.590

0.0073

0.4613

-2.2206

Swiss Franc

CHF Curncy

0.895

-0.0043

-0.4782

3.7877

Canadian Dollar

CAD Curncy

0.995

-0.0037

-0.3704

-2.3910

Chinese Yuan

CNY Curncy

6.299

-0.0029

-0.0460

4.3310

FOREIGN INDICIES

 

 

 

 

 

FTSE 100 INDEX

UK

5927.910

12.3600

0.2089

-1.1028

CAC 40 INDEX

FRANCE

3453.990

12.5400

0.3644

-15.9685

DAX INDEX

GERMANY

6887.630

38.0300

0.5552

-5.2898

NIKKEI 225 INDEX

JAPAN

9722.520

88.5900

0.9196

-8.4861

HANG SENG INDEX

HONG KONG

21568.730

350.8700

1.6537

-7.5811

 

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

Ph:  225-342-0013

Fx:  225-342-9721

Email:  jbroussard@treasusry.state.la.us

Street Address:

445 North Blvd, 7th Floor

Baton Rouge, LA 70802

Mailing Address:

P.O. Box 44154 Capitol Station

Baton Rouge, LA 70804-4154

Physical Location:

One City Plaza, 7th Floor

Corner of North Blvd & 4th Street

Exit 1B I-110 Convention Street,

Turn Left to get to North Blvd,

Turn Right on North Blvd

 

It's The Economy Stupid: Personal Financial Economics 101

Personal Financial Economics 101

 

Paying less for something is better than paying more for the same thing.

 

And FREE is more better.

 

Free Pancakes Today at IHOP, and More Freebies (Pretzels, Ice Cream) Coming Soon

 

Tuesday, February 28, is Free Pancake Day at IHOP, when each customer is welcomed to a short stack of buttermilk pancakes on the house.

 

On Free Pancake Day, guests are asked to make a donation in lieu of paying IHOP for their short stack. It’s an annual event that raises money for Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals and other charities.

 

IHOP has raised nearly $8 million for charities since it first started hosting Free Pancake Day, and this year the restaurant chain is hoping to gather $2.7 million with the help of its customers.

 

Also, coming soon on the freebie front:

 

Auntie Anne’s Free Pretzel Day: On Saturday, March 3, customers at Auntie Anne’s locations are welcomed to a free pretzel—choice of Original or Sugar Cinnamon—from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m.

 

Ben & Jerry’s Free Cone Day: Tune in to find out which day the ice cream makers will choose for their annual Free Cone Day event. It’s usually held toward the end of March, but the date for the 2012 Cone Day has yet to be announced.

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

 

It's The Economy Stupid: Dance Steps

It’s a good thing I took some dance lessons.  The economic data is kind of doing a two-step.  Two steps forward, one step back, with a lot of twists and twirls.  Let’s just hope the music doesn’t stop.

 

Economic Event

Period

Economic Survey

Actual Reported

Original Prior

Revised Prior

Durable Goods Orders

JAN

-1.0%

-4.0%

3.0%

3.2%

Durables Ex Transportation

JAN

0.0%

-3.2%

2.1%

2.1%

Cap Goods Orders NonDef Ex Air

JAN

-1.3%

-4.5%

2.9%

3.4%

Cap Goods Shipped NonDef Ex Air

JAN

-0.9%

-3.1%

2.9%

2.8%

 

Be careful out there on the dance floor!  Don’t step on your partner’s toes!

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

 

Monday, February 27, 2012

It's The Economy Stupid: Show Me The Money!

European Stocks Slide as G-20 Rebuffs Boosting IMF

 

So, the Group of 20 (G-20) met this weekend in Mexico.  The good news is none of the deligates were kidnapped and none of them got caught up in a drug cartel shoot out.

 

Germany went to the Mexico meetings of finance ministers and central bankers urging G-20 nations to find further money that the IMF could channel to the euro area.  IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, who attended the talks, said she wants to increase the fund’s lending capacity by $500 billion so that it can fend off “further shocks” to the global economy.

 

Basically, the other G-20 nations told the Europeans “Show Me The Money!”  G-20 officials told the euro area’s political leaders to utilize their own already committed funds and to provide more financial firepower before they (the G-20) consider lending their support, putting the onus on Germany, already the biggest national contributor to the bailouts.

 

European stocks declined, extending last week’s retreat, as the Group of 20 nations rejected calls from the euro area to increase the International Monetary Fund’s

lending resources.

 

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.7 percent to 263.05 at 3:47 p.m. in London, extending last week’s 0.4 percent retreat.

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

Ph:  225-342-0013

Fx:  225-342-9721

Email:  jbroussard@treasusry.state.la.us

Street Address:

445 North Blvd, 7th Floor

Baton Rouge, LA 70802

Mailing Address:

P.O. Box 44154 Capitol Station

Baton Rouge, LA 70804-4154

Physical Location:

One City Plaza, 7th Floor

Corner of North Blvd & 4th Street

Exit 1B I-110 Convention Street,

Turn Left to get to North Blvd,

Turn Right on North Blvd