Thursday, August 16, 2012

It's The Economy Stupid: Jobs, Housing, Building

Jobless Claims in the U.S. were little changed as the labor market appears to be stabilizing

 

Housing Starts in the U.S. fell in July and during the same period building permits reached a Four-Year High

 

Economic Event

Period

Economic Survey

Actual Reported

Original Prior

Revised Prior

Initial Jobless Claims

AUG 11

365K

366K

361K

634K

Continuing Claims

AUG 4

3300K

3305K

3332K

3336K

Housing Starts

JUL

756K

746K

760K

754K

Housing Starts MOM

JUL

-0.5%

-1.1%

6.9%

6.8%

Building Permits

JUL

769K

812K

755K

760K

Building Permits MOM

JUL

1.2%

6.8%

-3.7%

-3.1%

 

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits was little changed last week, bringing the average over the past month to the lowest

level since late March, a sign the labor market has stabilized after employment picked up in July.  The median forecast of 45 economists surveyed by

Bloomberg News called for an increase to 365,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, dropped to 363,750, the fewest since the week ended March 31.

 

There is some evidence that employers may be limiting firings as the pace of sales warrants keeping current staff levels, but they are resisting expansion of hiring. A pickup in demand and an agreement to forestall the fiscal cliff of tax increases and government spending cuts following the presidential election will probably be needed to induce an increase in hiring.

 

New-home construction in the U.S. fell in July, while the number of building permits jumped to the highest level in four years, indicating the industry will keep

improving in the second half of the year.  Starts fell 1.1 percent to a 746,000 annual rate from June’s 754,000 pace. The median estimate of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for 756,000. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose to an 812,000 pace, the most since August 2008.

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

 

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