Friday, September 14, 2012

It's The Economy Stupid: CPI

The headlines will read that the Consumer Pride Index rose in August by the most in any single month since 2009.

 

Economic Event

Period

Economic Survey

Actual Reported

Original Prior

Revised Prior

Consumer Price Index MoM

AUG

0.6%

0.6%

0.0%

 

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

AUG

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

 

Consumer Price Index YoY

AUG

1.7%

1.7%

1.4%

 

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

AUG

2.0%

1.9%

2.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But really, take away fuel costs and the story is quite different.  CPI Ex Food & Energy actually rose less than expected.

 

And limited job opportunities and low wages make it harder for companies to pass along higher commodities prices to their customers. Persistent joblessness along with few signs of a pronounced pickup in inflation is what allowed Federal Reserve policy makers to undertake an open ended QE3 yesterday in an attempt to boost economic expansion.

 

So, there are at least some signs of inflation in these numbers.  Does QE3 plant the seeds for greater inflation later on?  Yes, probably.  Will QE3 lead to inflation immediately?  No, probably not.  Does the Fed believe that it can unwind all the QE’s in a manner that will avoid much higher inflation?  Yes, surely.  Will the Fed actually be able to unwind all the QE’s in a manner that will avoid much higher inflation?  That’s the $64 Thousand dollar question.

 

 

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

 

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