It's The Economy Stupid: What's The 'New Normal'?

 

 

Economic Event	Period	Economic Survey	Actual Reported	Original Prior	Revised Prior
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	OCT	125K	171K	114K	148K
Change in Private Payrolls	OCT	123K	184K	104K	128K
Change in Manufact. Payrolls	OCT	-5K	13K	-16K	-14K
Unemployment Rate	OCT	7.9%	7.9%	7.8%
Avg Hourly Earning MoM All Empl	OCT	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%
Avg Hourly Earning YoY All Empl	OCT	1.7%	1.6%	1.8%	1.9%
Avg Weekly Earning YoY All Empl	OCT	34.5	34.4	34.5	34.4
Change in Household Employment	OCT		4.1	873
Uderemployment Rate	OCT		14.6%	14.7%

 

This is a good report, not a great report.  A gain of 300K would be great.  But these numbers, 171K in Nonfarm Payrolls and 184K in Private Payrolls, are above the 150K generally considered to be the number needed to sustain minimum economic growth.  The faster job growth may help explain recent gains in consumer sentiment, laying the groundwork for a pickup in purchases that’s helping sustain the expansion in the face of a weakening global economy.

 

Unemployment rate went back up to 7.9%.   The jobless rate when Obama took office in January 2009 was 7.8 percent rate. It exceeded 8 percent for 43 months prior to September, the longest such stretch since monthly records began in 1948.  The Underemployment Rate, which includes part-time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking went down to 14.6%

 

The report showed retailers added the most workers to payrolls since April 2011. A strengthening in the housing market helped drive a gain in construction employment, while payrolls increases were also noted in business services, manufacturing and leisure and hospitality.

    

At the same time, the report also showed that the average hourly earnings climbed 1.6 percent in October from a year earlier, the smallest gain since comparable records back to at least 2007.

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

Ph:  225-342-0013

Email:  jbroussard@treasusry.state.la.us