It's The Economy Stupid: May we put May behind us?

Okay…the market was kind of sucky in May, and the suckieness was wide spread, and in turn, that has made the last 12 months kind of suck.  Strictly technically speaking of course.  It’s been a tuff year for stock investors.

 

 

Description	Ticker	Last	CHANGE	% Chg Today	Pct Chg 1Yr
STOCK MARKETS
Dow Jones Industrial Average	INDU Index	12393.450	-26.4100	-0.2126	-1.4029
S&P 500 Index	SPX Index	1310.460	-2.8600	-0.2178	-2.4219
NASDAQ Composite Index	CCMP Index	2827.340	-10.0200	-0.3531	-0.2807
Russell 3000 Index	RAY Index	774.610	-1.7700	-0.2280	-3.8635
Russell 2000 Index (Small)	RTY Index	761.820	-0.1800	-0.0236	-10.1945
S&P 400 Mid Cap Index	MID Index	925.540	-2.4100	-0.2597	-7.4701
S&P 600 Small Cap Index	SML Index	428.040	-0.3800	-0.0887	-5.6038
TREASURIES	% Yield
3 Month Treasury	0.0710		0.0000	0.0000
6 Month Treasury	0.1268		-0.0100	-7.6923
2 Year Treasury	0.2618	99.977	0.0078	0.0078
5 Year Treasury	0.6616	99.820	0.1328	0.1332
10 Year Treasury	1.5696	101.656	0.4844	0.4788
30 Year Treasury	2.6544	107.125	1.2813	1.2105
ENERGY
Crude Oil, Brent Index	Brent Crude	101.820	-1.6500	-1.5947	-10.0521
Crude Oil, Louisiana Lt. Sweet	LA Lt Sweet	98.380	-1.3400	-1.3438	-16.8000
Natural Gas, Henry Hub Index	Nat Gas	2.416	-0.0020	-0.0827	-51.9300
PRECIOUS METALS
Spot Gold $/oz	GOLD	1564.130	0.7500	0.0480	1.8446
Spot Silver $/oz	SILVER	27.813	-0.0900	-0.3226	-27.7926
CURRENCIES
Euro	EUR Curncy	1.237	-0.0001	-0.0081	-14.1141
Japanese Yen	JPY Curncy	78.360	-0.7200	-0.9105	4.0327
British Pound	GBP Curncy	1.541	-0.0071	-0.4587	-6.3230
Swiss Franc	CHF Curncy	0.971	0.0002	0.0206	-12.0869
Canadian Dollar	CAD Curncy	1.033	0.0028	0.2718	-6.2252
Chinese Yuan	CNY Curncy	6.370	0.0201	0.3166	1.7207
FOREIGN INDICIES
FTSE 100 INDEX	UK	5320.860	23.5800	0.4451	-11.1708
CAC 40 INDEX	FRANCE	3017.010	1.4300	0.0474	-24.7054
DAX INDEX	GERMANY	6264.380	-16.4200	-0.2614	-14.1123
NIKKEI 225 INDEX	JAPAN	8542.730	-90.4600	-1.0478	-12.1083
HANG SENG INDEX	HONG KONG	18629.520	-60.7000	-0.3248	-21.1497

 

 

Name	Ticker	Last	1m % Chg	3m % Chg	6m % Chg	YTD % Chg	1y % Chg
S&P 500 Index	SPX Index	1310.92	-6.14	-3.89	5.27	4.39	-2.42
S&P Consumer Discret	S5COND Index	339.78	-5.87	-0.47	11.26	10.11	6.54
S&P Consumer Staples	S5CONS Index	347.33	-1.29	1.80	6.02	3.51	4.58
S&P Energy	S5ENRS Index	476.51	-10.62	-14.51	-9.48	-8.51	-16.47
S&P Financials	S5FINL Index	188.19	-9.32	-5.12	9.12	7.39	-11.69
S&P Health	S5HLTH Index	417.36	-3.89	-0.13	6.70	3.85	0.24
S&P Industrials	S5INDU Index	299.48	-6.36	-6.35	3.40	2.45	-7.72
S&P Info Tech	S5INFT Index	448.8	-7.85	-5.07	8.49	9.48	6.34
S&P Materials	S5MATR Index	213.23	-7.99	-8.81	-1.66	0.72	-13.69
S&P Telecom	S5TELS Index	139.66	2.60	7.97	11.60	7.58	2.43
S&P Utilities	S5UTIL Index	181	-0.13	2.68	1.92	-1.08	5.95

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

Ph:  225-342-0013

Fx:  225-342-9721

Email:  jbroussard@treasusry.state.la.us

Street Address:

445 North Blvd, 7^th Floor

Baton Rouge, LA 70802

Mailing Address:

P.O. Box 44154 Capitol Station

Baton Rouge, LA 70804-4154

Physical Location:

One City Plaza, 7th Floor

Corner of North Blvd & 4th Street

Exit 1B I-110 Convention Street,

Turn Left to get to North Blvd,

Turn Right on North Blvd

 

It's The Economy Stupid: Uh Oh! Washington is gonna need more lipstick.

Chicago Purchasing Manager index reported 52.7, much lower than economist’s expectations of 56.8, and last month it was 56.2.  It was 64.0 in February 2012.  52.7 is the lowest number since September 2009.  Numbers greater than 50 signal growth, numbers less than 50 signal contraction.

 

Together with the GDP numbers clearly the economy is starting to feel the effects of the Euro crisis.

 

The 10-Year Treasury blew through the 1.60% barrier and is trading around 1.592%.

 

You can’t put lipstick on this pig.  This is a bad number. BAD, BAD, BAD!

 

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

Ph:  225-342-0013

Fx:  225-342-9721

Email:  jbroussard@treasusry.state.la.us

Street Address:

445 North Blvd, 7^th Floor

Baton Rouge, LA 70802

Mailing Address:

P.O. Box 44154 Capitol Station

Baton Rouge, LA 70804-4154

Physical Location:

One City Plaza, 7th Floor

Corner of North Blvd & 4th Street

Exit 1B I-110 Convention Street,

Turn Left to get to North Blvd,

Turn Right on North Blvd

 

It's The Economy Stupid: That's a whole lot of stuff

Okay, so today we have more moving parts than a Swiss watch.  So, let’s make some sense of this stuff

 

Challenger Job Cuts YoY   BAD, HIGHEST NUMBER IN 8 MONTHS

NAPM – Milwaukee    GREAT NUMBER, WAY ABOVE EXPECTATIONS

ADP Employment Change   FEWER JOBS ADDED THAN EXPECTED, NO BIGEE

GDP QoQ Annualized   NOT GOOD, GDP GROWTH DROPS, WE NEED STRONGER GDP GROWTH

Personal Consuption   NOT GOOD, LOWER THAN EXPECTED

GDP Price Index   GOOD, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED

Core PCE QoQ   GOOD, AS EXPECTED

Initial Jobless Claims   BAD, INCREASING CLAIMS AIN’T A GOOD THING

Continuing Claims   NOT SO BAD, LOWER THAN EXPECTED

 

What a mess!  A muddy economic picture at best.  Clearly we ain’t doing great, but then again, we ain’t Europe either.

 

 

Economic Event	Period	Economic Survey	Actual Reported	Original Prior	Revised Prior
Challenger Job Cuts YoY	MAY		66.7%	11.2%
NAPM - Milwaukee	MAY	53.4	57.7	5290.0%
ADP Employment Change	MAY	150K	133K	119K	113K
GDP QoQ Annualized	1Q S	1.9%	1.9%	2.2%
Personal Consuption	1Q S	2.9%	2.7%	2.9%
GDP Price Index	1Q S	1.5%	1.7%	1.5%
Core PCE QoQ	1Q S	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%
Initial Jobless Claims	MAY 26	370K	383K	370K	373K
Continuing Claims	MAY 19	3250K	3242K	3260K	3278K

 

 

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

Ph:  225-342-0013

Fx:  225-342-9721

Email:  jbroussard@treasusry.state.la.us

Street Address:

445 North Blvd, 7^th Floor

Baton Rouge, LA 70802

Mailing Address:

P.O. Box 44154 Capitol Station

Baton Rouge, LA 70804-4154

Physical Location:

One City Plaza, 7th Floor

Corner of North Blvd & 4th Street

Exit 1B I-110 Convention Street,

Turn Left to get to North Blvd,

Turn Right on North Blvd