Thursday, May 17, 2012

FW: It's The Economy Stupid: Jobless Claims

Philly Fed manufacturing index was down -5.8, the survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg was looking for an increase of 10.0.  I was not a math major in college but it sure appears that those two numbers are not close. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly shrank for the first time in eight months, reflecting a drop in orders and employment. A positive number indicates expansion of manufacturing activity in the area covered by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District, a negative number a contraction of manufacturing.  Looks like we got us a contraction.  That ain’t good.

 

Leading Economic Indicators for April was down -0.1%, when economists were looking for up 0.1%.  The March number was a plus 0.3%.  It sure doesn’t look like it’s going in right direction.

 

Uh Oh!

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

Ph:  225-342-0013

 

From: John Broussard
Sent: Thursday, May 17, 2012 8:59 AM
Subject: It's The Economy Stupd: Jobless Claims

 

What is there to say.  Claims are up.  That’s not a good thing. 

 

Economic Event

Period

Economic Survey

Actual Reported

Original Prior

Revised Prior

Initial Jobless Claims

MAY 12

365K

370K

367K

370K

Continuing Claims

MAY 5

3225K

3265K

3229K

3247K

 

Spain

 

The yield on Spanish bonds are up 85 basis points in 2 weeks.  That’s a very steep increase in the risk premium in a really short period of time.  That is a warning signal if ever there was one.

 

Greece

 

Okay, there was a great piece in The Wall Street Journal on Greece yesterday.  $898 Million was withdrawn from Greek banks on MONDAY!  One day, 700 Million Euros disappear from the Greek banking system.  That’s not a good thing!  What’s going to happen to Greece?  It’s like a multiple choice test:

 

Greece will…

A) Leave the Euro

B) Repudiate their debt

C) Renegotiate their debt

D) Repent and do what the rest of the Euro nations want them to do

E) None of the above

F) A&B

G) C&D

 

My answer is ‘F’, which is also just happens to be the grade I would give Greece for their handling of their entire economy.

 

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

Ph:  225-342-0013

Fx:  225-342-9721

Email:  jbroussard@treasusry.state.la.us

 

Street Address:

445 North Blvd, 7th Floor

Baton Rouge, LA 70802

 

Mailing Address:

P.O. Box 44154 Capitol Station

Baton Rouge, LA 70804-4154

 

Physical Location:

One City Plaza, 7th Floor

Corner of North Blvd & 4th Street

Exit 1B I-110 Convention Street,

Turn Left to get to North Blvd,

Turn Right on North Blvd

 

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