The Philly Fed Manufacturing index in the Philadelphia region shrank in June at the fastest pace in almost a year, showing the global economic slowdown is holding factories back. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index fell to MINUS 16.6 in June, from minus 5.8 the previous month. Economists forecast the gauge would improve to zero (Missed it by just a little bit!), the dividing line between growth and contraction. So, -16.6 is safely in the realm of contraction.
And just to add to the bad news, the June Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index fell to -11, versus -1 in May. And the U.S. Weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to -37.9 from -36.4. Clearly the American consumer’s psyche is heading downward, which bodes badly for consumer spending.
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
Ph: 225-342-0013
From: John Broussard
Sent: Thursday, June 21, 2012 7:38 AM
Subject: It's The Economy Stupid: Jobless Claims
Economic Event | Period | Economic Survey | Actual Reported | Original Prior | Revised Prior |
Initial Jobless Claims | JUN 16 | 383K | 387K | 386K | 389K |
Continuing Claims | JUN 9 | 3278K | 3299K | 3278K | 3299K |
More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, indicating the labor market is continuing to struggle.
Jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 387,000 in the week ended June 16, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 45 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for 383,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, climbed to the highest of the year.
The level of dismissals may raise concern the slowdown in payrolls reported in the past few months will be prolonged, limiting consumer spending. Federal Reserve policy makers yesterday expanded a program to replace short-term bonds with longer-term debt in a bid to spur growth and trim a jobless rate that’s exceeded 8 percent for 40 consecutive months.
The four-week moving average increased to 386,250, the highest since the week ended Dec. 3, from 382,750.
Today’s report showed the number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits was little changed at 3.3 million in the week ended June 9. The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs.
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
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