Wednesday, August 31, 2011

It's The Economy Stupid

One reason why QE3 by the Fed would have little impact on Economic growth


From the Bridgewater Daily Observations for Wednesday, August 31, 2011 -


“While Treasury rates have fallen from about 3.5% early in the year to 2.2% now, the impact on housing and therefore households is likely to be modest.  The refinancing channel is unlikely to be significant because mortgage rates have fallen a lot less than Treasuries, and for most eligible borrowers, rates are not that much lower than they were last year.  Our estimated impact on growth from the decline in rates is less than 0.2%.  The flow-through to higher demand for houses and therefore higher prices is also likely to be muted by the decline in equity prices (which reduces available down payments) and the broader deterioration in economic conditions.  Early evidence suggests that demand for housing has weakened over the last two months, and on net, we still expect home prices to fall modestly going forward, as demand for houses will likely remain weak while oversupply remains substantial.  While mortgage rates and housing more broadly are not the only way that lower Treasury rates flow through to growth, they represent a significant channel that will likely benefit much less than usual from the drop in rates.”


3 Mo T-Bill   0.15%

6 Mo T-Bill   0.46%

2 Yr T-Note   0.196%

3 Yr T-Note   0.306%

5 Yr T-Note   0.909%

7 Yr T-Note   1.498%

10 Yr T-Note   2.164%

20 Yr T-Note   3.091%

30 Yr T-Bond   3.528%


John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

Ph:  225-342-0013

Fx:  225-342-9721


Street Address:

301 Main Street

Baton Rouge, LA 70802

Mailing Address:

P.O. Box 44154 Capitol Station

Baton Rouge, LA 70804-4154

Physical Location:

One American Place, 7th Floor

Corner of North Street & 4th Street

Exit 1D I-110 North Street / Capitol Park / Downtown


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