It's The Economy Stupid: Another Outlier

Economic Event	Period	Economic Survey	Actual Reported	Original Prior	Revised Prior
Import Price Index MoM	SEP	0.70%	1.10%	0.70%	1.10%
Import Price Index YoY	SEP	-1.30%	-0.60%	-2.20%	-1.90%
Trade Balance	AUG	-$44.08	-$44.2B	-$42.08	-$42.5B
Initial Jobless Claims	OCT 6	370K	339K	367K	369K
Continuing Jobless Claims	SEP 29	3275K	3273K	3281K	3288K

 

Let the conspiracy theorists begin their rants.

 

The Initial Jobless Claims looks like another outlier on first glance. According to the Labor Department one state accounted for most of the plunge in claims.  The four-week moving average for jobless claims, a much less-volatile measure, fell to 364,000 from 375,000.  The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits dropped by 15,000 to 3.27 million.

 

The Trade Deficit widened in August. Chalk that up to a stagnant economy in Europe and slower growth in China and other emerging markets.

 

Import prices increased in September and the prior number was revised upward also.  Year on Year the decrease in Import Prices was cut in half.   

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury