Empire Manufacturing is really bad, but not as bad as it was the month before. So it was really bad versus really, really bad. Retail sales was surprised to the good side.
Advance Retail Sales
Manufacturing in the New York region contracted for a third straight month in October as shipments and employment declined, indicating the economy will get less support from factories.
Okay you have got to follow this logic. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index ROSE TO MINUS 6.2 (-6.2) FROM MINUS 10.4 (-101.4) in September, which was the lowest since April 2009.
So it’s like it’s falling out of bed at a slower rate.
Retail sales in the U.S. rose more than projected in September, reflecting broad-based gains that indicate household spending helped bolster economic growth last quarter. The 1.1 percent gain followed a revised 1.2 percent increase in August that was the biggest since October 2010 and larger than previously reported.
Ultimately, in order for the economy to get better the consumer has to be able to spend more money.
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury