It's The Economy Stupid: Looks Like They Found The Jobless

Economic Event	Period	Economic Survey	Actual Reported	Original Prior	Revised Prior
Initial Jobless Claims	OCT 13	365K	388K	339K	342K
Continuing Jobless Claims	OCT 6	3275K	3252K	3273K	3281K

 

Well, it looks like the 30 thousand initial jobless claims that the report was light on last week showed up this week.   

 

Jobless Claims in U.S. Rise More Than Forecast on Seasonal Shift.  More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, reflecting an unwinding of adjustments for “seasonal” swings at the start of a quarter.

 

Jobless claims increased by 46,000 to 388,000 in the week ended Oct. 13 from a revised 342,000 the prior period that was the lowest since February 2008.  The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a rise in claims to 365,000.  Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 345,000 to 390,000. The Labor Department revised the previous week’s figure up from an initially reported 339,000.

    

The Labor Department said that in the most recent week, all states reported and none were estimated.  So, they may be career professionals, but it’s not exactly an exact science.

 

The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, rose to 365,500 last week from 364,750. The average number of claims over the past two weeks was in line with the four-week average, indicating little change in the pace of firings outside the seasonal swings.

 

 

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury