Most often asked question this morning: How did they come up with a 7.8% Unemployment Rate when the Change in Nonfarm Payrolls is well below the 150K constant employment rate?
My answer: It’s statistics, not accounting. It’s “fuzzy” numbers. And this one appears to be the chia pet of labor statistics.
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
Ph: 225-342-0013
From: John Broussard
Sent: Friday, October 05, 2012 7:40 AM
Subject: It's The Economy Stupid: A Game Changer???
Economic Event | Period | Economic Survey | Actual Reported | Original Prior | Revised Prior |
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | SEP | 115K | 114K | 96K | 142K |
Change in Private Payrolls | SEP | 130K | 104K | 103K | 97K |
Change in Manufact. Payrolls | SEP | 0K | -16K | -15K | -22K |
Unemployment Rate | SEP | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | |
Change in Household Employment | SEP | | 873 | -119 | |
Underemployment Rate | SEP | | 14.7% | 14.7% | |
The Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.8%. Economists estimated that it was going to rise to 8.2%. Is this a game changing number?
The job creation number was better, and the previous periods numbers were raised also. The big change was in Household Employment. No doubt about it, if these numbers don’t get revised significantly downward later on, these are good indicators for the economy.
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
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