Thursday, April 18, 2013

It's The Economy Stupid: Jobless Claims

Economic Event


Economic Survey

Actual Reported

Original Prior

Revised Prior

Initial Jobless Claims

APR 13





Continuing Claims







Okay, This is a yawner.  Let’s be real.  Basically the Jobless Claims numbers are flat. 


Jobless Claims Little Changed as U.S. Job Market “Stabilizes “


The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits was little changed last week, signaling the labor market is stabilizing.


Applications for jobless insurance payments increased by 4,000 to 352,000 in the week ended April 13, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. There was nothing unusual in last week’s data and two states, California and Kentucky, were estimated, a Labor Department official said.


The report indicates employers have enough demand to hold on to workers, which means they may be prepared to boost hiring should sales pick up. Gains in consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, will be needed to prevent growth from slowing as automatic cuts in federal spending take effect.


Moody’s was the best forecaster of jobless claims over the past two years according to data compiled by Bloomberg.  


The median forecast of 46 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a rise to 350,000. Estimates ranged from 330,000 to 380,000. The Labor Department revised the previous week’s figure up to 348,000, from an initially reported 346,000.


The four-week moving average of Jobless Calims, what most economists consider the better gauge and a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, rose to 361,250 last week from 358,500. The figures jumped in late March and then retreated as the government had difficulty adjusting claims for the Easter and school spring break holidays that occurred a little earlier than usual this year.


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