Thursday, April 4, 2013

It's The Economy Stupid: Jobs, Or The Lack There Of

Economic Event


Economic Survey

Actual Reported

Original Prior

Revised Prior

Challenger Job Cuts YoY






RBC Consumer Outlook Index






Initial Jobless Claims

MAR 30





Continuing Claims

MAR 23






Jobless Claims in U.S. Increased More Than Forecast Last Week


More Americans than projected filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, reflecting the difficulty the government has adjusting the figures around the Easter holiday and spring break at schools.


Jobless claims rose by 28,000 to 385,000 in the week ended March 30, the highest since Nov. 24th.  The median forecast of 47 economists

surveyed by Bloomberg called for a drop to 353,000. Before adjusting for seasonal variations, claims fell by almost 1,600.


However, even the more dependable four-week average of claims rose to 354,250 from 343,000. 


A report tomorrow from the Labor Department may show employers added 195,000 workers to payrolls in March after 236,000 the month before, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The jobless rate is projected to hold at 7.7 percent.


Economists’ estimates of Initial Jobless Claims in the Bloomberg survey ranged from claims of 330,000 to 400,000.  The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits fell by 8,000 to 3.06 million in the week ended March 23.  The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs.  Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments decreased by about 106,688 to 1.8 million in the week ended March 16.


The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, held at 2.4 percent in the week ended March 23, today’s report showed.


Challenger Job Cuts - U.S. Job-Cut Announcements Up 30% in March


March U.S. planned firings up 30% YoY to 49,255 according to the Challenger, Gray & Christmas survey released today.

* May be more retail jobs cuts in months ahead after Best Buy, J.C. Penney, Sears, Kmart, Blockbuster “forced to shed workers” in recent months

* March 8, JCP cutting added 2.2k jobs as sales plunge

* Retail led cuts, with 16,445 in March after 2,279 in February

* Retailers also lead 1Q cuts, with 25,400, followed by financial with 33,819 YoY

* Financial had 3,517 in March after 21,724 in February

* Sequestration hasn’t yet led to “significant surge” in government job cuts (1,448 in March)

* Total announced 1Q cuts 145,041, up 5.6% YoY

* Employers also announced plans to hire 8,115 workers after February’s 92,372 workers









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