It's The Economy Stupid: Retail Sales & PPI

Economic Event	Period	Economic Survey	Actual Reported	Original Prior	Revised Prior
Advance Retail Sales	MAR	0.0%	-0.4%	1.1%	1.0%
Retail Sales Less Autos	MAR	0.0%	-0.4%	1.0%
Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas	MAR	0.3%	-0.1%	0.4%	0.3%
Retail Sales "Control Group"	MAR	0.2%	-0.2%	0.4%	0.3%
Producer Price Index MoM	MAR	-0.2%	-0.6%	0.7%
PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM	MAR	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Producer Price Index YoY	MAR	1.4%	1.1%	1.7%
PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY	MAR	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%

 

Not great news.  I’m guessing the market won’t set a new high today.   Seven of 13 major Retail Sales categories showed declines last month, led by a 1.2 percent decrease at general merchandise outlets, which includes department stores, and a 1.6 percent drop at electronics dealers. Sales at automobile and parts dealers fell 0.6 percent.

 

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Retail Sales in U.S. Dropped in March by Most in Nine Months

 

Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in March by the most in nine months as employment slowed, showing households ended the first quarter on softer footing.

    

The 0.4 percent decrease, the biggest since June, followed a 1 percent gain in February. The median forecast of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an unchanged reading in March. Department stores and electronics dealers were among the weakest showings.

 

The figures may prompt economists, who are projecting consumer spending climbed in the first quarter at the fastest pace in two years, to reduce growth estimates. A pickup in hiring and bigger increases in wages will be needed to ensure any slowdown proves temporary as federal budget cuts restrain the world’s largest economy.

 

Economists’ sales estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from a decline of 0.6 percent to an advance of 0.7 percent. The February reading was revised from an initially reported 1.1 percent increase, and January was cut to a 0.1 percent drop from a previously reported 0.2 percent gain.