Payrolls in U.S. Rise Less Than Forecast; Jobless Rate Falls As More People Look For Jobs
Economic Event | Period | Economic Survey | Actual Reported | Original Prior | Revised Prior |
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | Jan | 180K | 113K | 74K | 75K |
Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | Jan | -- | 34K | -- | -- |
Change in Private Payrolls | Jan | 185K | 142K | 87K | 89K |
Change in Manufact. Payrolls | Jan | 10K | 21K | 9K | 8K |
Unemployment Rate | Jan | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | -- |
Average Hourly Earnings MoM | Jan | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Average Hourly Earnings YoY | Jan | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% |
Average Weekly Hours All Employees | Jan | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | -- |
Change in Household Employment | Jan | -- | 638 | 143 | -- |
Underemployment Rate | Jan | -- | 12.7% | 13.1% | -- |
Labor Force Participation Rate | Jan | -- | 63.0% | 62.8% | -- |
Payrolls rose less than projected in January as retailers cut back after the holidays and government hiring fell. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 6.6 percent. You have to remember that the unemployment rate is derived from a separate Labor Department survey of households, it is not tied to the payrolls tally. I guess the good news is that the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level since October 2008 even as more Americans entered the labor force looking for jobs. The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 63.0% from 62.8%.
The Nonfarm Payroll number was 113,000 gain in employment followed a revised 75,000 increase the prior month. But the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey called for a 180,000 advance. The unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level since October 2008 even as more Americans entered the labor force.
Retailers and government agencies cut payrolls by the most in more than a year, while construction firms and manufacturers boosted employment. Broad-based improvement in job growth is needed to help generate bigger wage gains and spur the consumer spending that accounts for almost 70 percent of the economy.
Today’s report showed 262,000 Americans were not at work because of inclement weather in January, little changed from the same month last year, suggesting conditions played a more limited role than in December. In the Jan. 10 release of the prior month’s data, the Labor Department had said poor weather kept 273,000 people from work, the most for any December since 1977.
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Life is good! The alternative? Not so much.
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
225-342-0013
jbroussard@treasury.state.la.us
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