Thursday, November 7, 2013

It's The Economy Stupid: Jobless & GDP

Okay, Jobless Clams numbers were almost on the money as compared to expectations.  GDP number looks hot, and there is no denying that it is a really good number, up 2.8% versus economists’ expectations of 2.0%, and better than the prior number of 2.5%.  But closer examination makes one take pause.

 

Economic Event

Period

Economic Survey

Actual Reported

Original Prior

Revised Prior

Initial Jobless Claims

Nov-2

335K

336K

340K

345K

Continuing Claims

Oct-26

2875K

2868K

2881K

2864K

GDP Annualized QoQ

3Q A

2.0%

2.8%

2.5%

--

Personal Consumption

3Q A

1.6%

1.5%

1.8%

--

GDP Price Index

3Q A

1.4%

1.9%

0.6%

--

Core PCE QoQ

3Q A

1.5%

1.4%

0.6%

--

 

     The economy in the U.S. expanded in the third quarter at a faster pace than forecast, led by the biggest increase in inventories in more than a year as household purchases and business investment slowed.

     Gross domestic product rose at a 2.8 percent annualized rate after a 2.5 percent gain the prior three months.  The median

forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 2 percent advance. Consumer spending climbed 1.5 percent, the

smallest increase since 2011.

     The biggest gain in inventories since the first three months of 2012 risks holding back production in the current quarter, which began with a 16-day partial shutdown of the federal government.  Jobs data tomorrow are projected to show hiring slowed in October, helping explain why Federal Reserve policy makers are pressing on with stimulus.

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

225-342-0013

jbroussard@treasury.state.la.us

 

No comments:

Post a Comment