Friday, November 8, 2013

It's The Economy Stupid: Lots of Econ Numbers

Where to start???

 

Okay, the government shutdown put hundreds of thousands of people out of work, right???  So by that logic the employment number should have gone down, the unemployment rate should have gone up, and the underemployment rate should have gone up.

 

But something funny happened along the way.  Employment went UP!  204 thousand jobs when economists expected a number of 120 thousand.  Why?  The private sector is hiring people.  The economy is doing better. 

 

Economic Event

Period

Economic Survey

Actual Reported

Original Prior

Revised Prior

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Oct

120K

204K

148K

163K

Two-Month Payroll Net Revision

Oct

--

60K

--

--

Change in Private Payrolls

Oct

125K

212K

126K

150K

Change in Manufact. Payrolls

Oct

5K

19K

2K

4K

Unemployment Rate

Oct

7.3%

7.3%

7.2%

--

Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Oct

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

--

Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Oct

2.3%

2.2%

2.1%

2.0%

Average Weekly Hours All Employees

Oct

34.5

34.4

34.5

34.4

Change in Household Employment

Oct

--

-735

133

--

Underemployment Rate

Oct

--

13.8%

13.6%

--

Labor Force Participation Rate

Oct

--

62.8%

63.2%

--

Personal Income

Sep

0.3%

0.5%

0.4%

0.5%

Personal Spending

Sep

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

--

PCE Deflator MoM

Sep

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

--

PCE Deflator YoY

Sep

1.0%

0.9%

1.2%

1.1%

PCE Core MoM

Sep

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

PCE Core YoY

Sep

1.3%

1.2%

1.2%

--

 

    Payrolls in the U.S. increased more than forecast in October, a sign that employers were optimistic the world’s biggest economy would weather the effects of the federal government shutdown.

 

     The addition of 204,000 workers followed a revised 163,000 gain in September that was larger than initially estimated. The median forecast of 91 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 120,000 advance. The jobless rate rose to 7.3 percent from an almost five-year low.  The figures indicate companies adhered to hiring plans with an outlook to stronger sales in the aftermath of the 16-day budget impasse and a debate over raising the nation’s debt ceiling. The data also underscore the view of Federal Reserve officials that employment conditions are on the mend as they look beyond fiscal restraint in considering when to dial back record monetary stimulus.

 

     Payrolls increased at manufacturers by the most since February, retailers added about twice as many workers as the month before, and leisure and hospitality employment was the strongest in six months.

 

     The unemployment rate, derived from a separate Labor Department survey of households rather than employers, was

forecast to rise to 7.3 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey median. The household figures showed more Americans

dropped out of the labor force.  The participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, decreased to 62.8 percent, the lowest since March 1978, from 63.2 percent a month earlier.  As many as 800,000 federal workers were furloughed during last month’s government shutdown. The Labor Department, in its survey of 60,000 households, extrapolated the effects of the impasse to arrive at the unemployment rate. Americans who weren’t working during the week spanning Oct. 6 to Oct. 12 were counted in the household survey as unemployed, even if they

received, or anticipated getting, pay retroactively, based on a statement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

225-342-0013

jbroussard@treasury.state.la.us

 

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