Thursday, November 21, 2013

It's The Economy Stupid: The Jobless & Producers Prices

Claims for Jobless Benefits in U.S. Fall More Than Forecast

 

      Initial Jobless Claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. declined to the lowest level in almost two months, showing further healing in the labor market.  Jobless claims in the week ended Nov. 16 dropped by 21,000 to 323,000, the fewest since the week ended Sept. 28, from a revised 344,000 the previous week.  The median forecast of 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a drop to 335,000. Last week included the Veterans’ Day holiday, which makes adjusting the data for seasonal swings more difficult.  Economists’ estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 323,000 to 360,000. The prior week’s claims were revised up from an initial reading of 339,000.

      Rising sales going into the holiday-shopping period will probably prompt employers to keep current workers on staff to meet demand. Fewer firings may also lead to bigger gains in hiring that will help boost consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70 percent of the economy.  I am a glass half full kind of guy.

      The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits increased by 66,000 to 2.876 million in the week ended Nov. 9. Continuing Claims came in at 2,876,000, versus the previous periods 2,810,000.  Economists’ estimates called for 2,870,000 in Continuing Claims.  Continuing claims don’t include Americans who have exhausted their traditional state aid and are receiving emergency and extended benefits under federal programs. Those job seekers decreased by about 32,200 to 1.3 million in the week ended Nov. 2.

     Another report today showed wholesale prices dropped in October for a second month, showing inflation remains tame.  The 0.2 percent decrease in the Producer Price Index followed a 0.1 percent fall the prior month.  The decline matched the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 75 economists. The so-called core measure, which strips out volatile food and fuel, climbed 0.2 percent after a 0.1 percent gain in September.

Economic Event

Period

Economic Survey

Actual Reported

Original Prior

Revised Prior

Initial Jobless Claims

Nov 16

335K

323K

339K

344K

Continuing Claims

Nov 9

2870K

2876K

2874K

2810K

PPI MoM

Oct

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.1%

--

PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM

Oct

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

--

PPI YoY

Oct

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

--

PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY

Oct

1.3%

1.4%

1.2%

--

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

225-342-0013

jbroussard@treasury.state.la.us

 

No comments:

Post a Comment