Nobody saw this coming. The GDP revision jumped up to 3.6% for the 3rd quarter, up from the original estimate of 2.8%. That’s the big news. Everything else is kind of like noise in the background. Apparently it was a bad week for economists because they also missed big time on Initial Jobless Claims. Jobless claims DECREASED 23,000 to 298,000 in the week ended Nov. 30. The median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg
called for an INCREASE to 320,000. Got the direction wrong, got the number wrong.
Challenger’s Job Cuts serves showed a decrease in layoffs of 20%
RBC’s Consumer Outlook increased to 49.7
Initial Jobless Claims decreased below 300 thousand to 298 thousand
Continuing Jobless Claims decrease to 2.744 million from 2.765 million
Personal Consumption decreased to 1.4%
GDP Price Index increased 2%
Core Prices increased 1.5%
Challenger Job Cuts YoY
RBC Consumer Outlook Index
Initial Jobless Claims
GDP Annualized QoQ
GDP Price Index
Core PCE QoQ
The U.S. economy expanded in the third quarter at a faster pace than initially reported, led by the biggest increase in inventories since early 1998. Gross domestic product climbed at a 3.6 percent annualized rate, up from an initial estimate of 2.8 percent and the strongest since the first quarter of 2012. The median forecast of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted a 3.1 percent gain.
Applications for U.S. employment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest level in more than two months as the data becomes more difficult to adjust for seasonal variations during the year-end holiday period. Jobless claims decreased 23,000 to 298,000 in the week ended Nov. 30, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an increase to 320,000 from an initially reported 316,000 the prior week. The reading was the lowest since the first week in September when the Labor Day holiday also played havoc with the figures. Economists’ estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 307,000 to 335,000. The prior week’s claims were revised to 321,000 from an initial reading of 316,000. The four-week average of claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, fell to 322,250 from 333,000.
“A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore.” ~ Yogi Berra
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury