It's The Economy Stupid: Jobless Claims

Economic Event	Period	Economic Survey	Actual Reported	Original Prior	Revised Prior
Initial Jobless Claims	Sep 7	330K	292K	323K	--
Continuing Claims	Aug 31	2960K	2871K	2951K	2944K
Import Price Index MoM	Aug	0.5%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%
Import Price Index YoY	Aug	0.4%	-0.4%	1.0%	0.9%
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	Sep 8	--	--	-32.3	--
Monthly Budget Statement	Aug	-$146.0B	--	-$190.5B	--

 

Jobless Claims Slump as Two U.S. States Upgrade Computer Systems.  IN OTHER WORDS, THE NUMBERS ARE DOWN (WRONG) BECAUSE OF MEASUREMENT PROBLEMS.

 

Jobless claims in the U.S. declined last week to the lowest level since April 2006 as upgrades to computer systems in two states caused those employment agencies to report fewer applications.

 

First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell by 31,000 to 292,000 in the week ended Sept. 7, which also included the Labor Day holiday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 330,000 applications. An agency spokesman said that the upgrades played a major role in the drop in claims.

 

Fewer dismissals would be a precursor to an increase in hiring once demand strengthens and the effects of federal budget reductions become less pronounced. While the pace of job cuts has waned since the end of last year, faster payroll and income

growth would help propel the consumer spending that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy.

  

Estimates in the Bloomberg survey of 50 economists ranged from 315,000 to 350,000.

 

No states estimated jobless claims last week, the Labor Department spokesman said as the report was released to the press. A larger state and a smaller one that retooled their computer networks still provided the Labor Department with applications counts. He also said that the decrease in filings probably didn’t signal a change in labor-market conditions.

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

225-342-0013

jbroussard@treasury.state.la.us