Friday, September 13, 2013

It's The Economy Stupid: PPI & Retail Sales

Retail Sales Disappoint; PPI Up On Food & Energy

 

Economic Event

Period

Economic Survey

Actual Reported

Original Prior

Revised Prior

PPI MoM

Aug

0.2%

0.3%

0.0%

--

PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM

Aug

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

--

PPI YoY

Aug

1.3%

1.4%

2.1%

--

PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY

Aug

1.3%

1.1%

1.2%

--

Retail Sales Advance MoM

Aug

0.5%

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM

Aug

0.3%

0.1%

0.5%

0.6%

Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas

Aug

0.3%

0.1%

0.4%

0.6%

Retail Sales Control Group

Aug

0.3%

0.2%

0.5%

--

Univ. of Michigan Confidence

Sep P

82

--

82.1

--

Business Inventories

Jul

0.2%

--

0.0%

--

 

Retail Sales in U.S. Rose Less Than Forecast in August

 

Retail sales in the U.S. rose less than forecast in August as the biggest part of the economy struggled to gain momentum.  The 0.2 percent increase was the smallest in four months and followed a revised 0.4 percent July gain that was bigger than previously estimated, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.5 percent advance. Sales excluding motor vehicles rose 0.1 percent.  Higher payroll taxes, limited job gains and restrained income growth are discouraging consumers, whose spending accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Today’s report is one of the last pieces of data before next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, at which policy makers will consider whether to

dial back record monetary stimulus.

 

Producer Prices in U.S. Rose 0.3% in August on Energy, Food

 

Wholesale prices in the U.S. rose more than forecast in August, reflecting higher costs for food and some fuels.  The 0.3 percent increase in the producer price index followed no change in the prior month. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 0.2 percent gain. The core measure, which excludes volatile food and fuel costs, was unexpectedly unchanged from July.  Slower growth abroad that’s held down costs of some raw materials, is allowing manufacturers to hold the line on prices. Federal Reserve policy makers, who meet next week, continue to see inflation running below its 2 percent goal as they consider whether to pare record monetary stimulus.  Inflation will likely remain subdued over the balance of this year.  We may see some modest pickup next year, but the economy would have to gain some momentum in order for that to come to pass.  Estimates of the 76 economists in the Bloomberg survey ranged from a drop of 0.3 percent to a 0.6 percent increase.      Wholesale prices minus food and energy were projected to rise 0.1 percent, according to the median forecast. Compared with the same month a year earlier, companies paid 1.4 percent more for goods. The core index increased 1.1 percent in the 12 months ended in August, the smallest gain since June 2010.      

 

Producer prices are one of three monthly inflation gauges from the Labor Department. Import prices were unchanged in August, a Labor Department report yesterday showed, and a Sept. 17 report will show that consumer prices climbed 0.2 percent last month, based on the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

225-342-0013

jbroussard@treasury.state.la.us

 

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