Monday, September 30, 2013

It's The Economy Stupid: Shutdown & Default

People that know me know that I generally think in terms of probability.  I don’t really think in absolutes, I don’t tend to think in either/or results.  I generally think that there are a range of outcomes, with some more likely than others.  The markets are facing some headwinds this morning.  First, and foremost, a shutdown of the U.S. Government.  The probability of a federal government shutdown  greatly increased early Sunday morning as a defiant Republican-controlled House passed another short-term spending bill that requires a one-year delay in implementing the Affordable Care Act.  The bill now goes to the Senate for approval, by all accounts a non-starter in the upper chamber, greatly increasing the probability of a government shutdown.

 

And then just to heap a little more worry on the markets, it appears that Detroit is going to default on its municipal bonds, and if it does it will be the largest such municipal bond default in at least 4 decades. 

 

So stock prices are down and bond prices are down.  Markets, and the investors whose money drives them, don’t like uncertainty.

 

Description

Ticker

Last

Change

% Chg Today

% Chg 1Year

STOCK MARKETS

 

 

 

 

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

INDU Index

15129.540

-128.7000

-0.8435

12.5830

S&P 500 Index

SPX Index

1678.360

-13.3900

-0.7915

16.5145

NASDAQ 100 Index

NDX Index

3208.264

-22.0410

-0.6823

14.5781

NASDAQ Composite Index

CCMP Index

3753.325

-28.2690

-0.7475

20.4182

Russell 3000 Index

RAY Index

1009.000

-7.8000

-0.7671

18.7900

Russell 1000 Index (Large Cap)

RIY Index

937.680

-7.1000

-0.7515

18.1205

Russell 2000 Index (Small Cap)

RTY Index

1064.160

-10.0300

-0.9337

27.0727

Wilshire 5000 Total Market

W5000 Index

17935.070

-137.6700

-0.7618

19.2018

TREASURIES

% Yield

 

 

 

 

3 Month Treasury

0.0101

 

-0.0100

-100.0000

 

6 Month Treasury

0.0355

 

0.0000

0.0000

 

2 Year Treasury

0.3325

99.836

0.0000

0.0000

 

5 Year Treasury

1.4042

99.844

-0.0313

-0.0313

 

10 Year Treasury

2.6227

98.914

-0.0078

-0.0079

 

30 Year Treasury

3.6803

98.969

0.0781

0.0790

 

ENERGY

 

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil, Brent Index

Brent Crude

107.540

-1.0900

-1.0034

1.8852

Crude Oil, Louisiana Lt. Sweet

LA Lt Sweet

103.990

-1.3300

-1.2628

-7.3100

Natural Gas, Henry Hub Index

Nat Gas

3.523

-0.0660

-1.8390

-11.4350

PRECIOUS METALS

 

 

 

 

 

Spot Gold $/oz

GOLD

1326.680

-9.9700

-0.7459

-25.1278

Spot Silver $/oz

SILVER

21.552

-0.2330

-1.0695

-37.5622

CURRENCIES

 

 

 

 

 

Euro

EUR Curncy

0.739

-0.0005

-0.0676

-4.7429

Japanese Yen

JPY Curncy

97.720

-0.5000

-0.5091

-20.1822

British Pound

GBP Curncy

0.620

0.0000

0.0000

-0.0484

Swiss Franc

CHF Curncy

0.905

-0.0010

-0.1104

3.7475

Canadian Dollar

CAD Curncy

1.030

-0.0011

-0.1067

-4.5662

Chinese Renminbi

CNY Curncy

6.122

0.0020

0.0327

2.6806

FOREIGN INDICIES

 

 

 

 

 

FTSE 100 INDEX

UK

6462.380

-50.2800

-0.7720

12.5361

CAC 40 INDEX

FRANCE

4128.250

-58.5200

-1.3977

23.0480

DAX INDEX

GERMANY

8566.250

-95.2600

-1.0998

18.7291

NIKKEI 225 INDEX

JAPAN

14455.800

-304.2700

-2.0614

62.9711

HANG SENG INDEX

HONG KONG

22859.860

-347.1800

-1.4960

9.6902

SHANGHAI COMP INDEX

CHINA

2174.665

14.6380

0.6777

4.2421

 

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

225-342-0013

jbroussard@treasury.state.la.us

 

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