Tuesday, September 24, 2013

It's The Economy Stupid: What Would A Shutdown of Government Do?

So,  What is likely to happen if the U.S. Government were to shut down?  The last time the U.S. Government shutdown was in late 1995, and early 1996.  The issue then was debate over the debt ceiling.  Although there was persistent speculation in the press that the shutdown would lead to a recession, a recession never occurred.  However, not everything sailed through the ’95-’96 shutdown unscathed.  Economic statistics were affected in the mid-1990s with a collapse in Consumer Confidence of more than 10 points.  Jobless claims surged from around 300K to more than 400K.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average did decline 4.5% following its mid-December  1995 peak to its mid-January 1996 low on the softening economic figures.  If a shutdown comes to pass this year, it is reasonable to expect similar reactions.  Worsening of the economy, but no recession, a downturn in the stock market, and certainly more market volatility across all markets.

 

Economic Event

Period

Economic Survey

Actual Reported

Original Prior

Revised Prior

S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA

Jul

0.80%

0.62%

0.89%

0.88%

S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY

Jul

12.40%

12.39%

12.07%

--

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index NSA

Jul

162.69

162.49

159.54

--

House Price Index MoM

Jul

0.80%

1.00%

0.70%

--

Richmond Fed Manufact. Index

Sep

12

--

14

--

Consumer Confidence Index

Sep

79.9

--

81.5

--

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

225-342-0013

jbroussard@treasury.state.la.us

 

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