Thursday, January 2, 2014

It's The Economy Stupid: Market Close

Am I the only one that feels like there are 2 Monday’s in this week?

 

The stock market opened the new year on a down note.  Does that indicate anything?  Well, today it does.  For the year, not so much.  But here are some market return barometers that have better predictive history:

·         As goes the first 5 trading days of the year, so goes the year.  In the last 36 years this has an 80% predictive rate.

·         As goes January, so goes the year.  Since 1950 this has an 88% predictive rate.

 

There is a consensus emerging on the street that the market returns for 2014 will be around 8% to 10%.  Sounds good and plausible because since 1926 when modern market data on the U.S. market began the average gain on U.S. stocks has been 10.1%.  Except there is one problem.  In those 88 years of data, the market has NEVER returned between 8% and 10%.  Not once.  It always has produced more or less.  So hope for more, but be prepared for less.

 

Jobless claims decreased to the lowest level in a month as the volatility typical during the year-end holidays waned.  Jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 339,000 in the period ended Dec. 28.  The median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 344,000 claims. Firings will probably be limited this year as gains in business and consumer spending strengthen the economy.  Further healing in the labor market may depend on lawmakers’ progress in budget negotiations this month, which would support business and consumer confidence and a willingness to add to staff.

 

Manufacturing grew in December at the second-fastest pace in more than two years, fueled by a gain in  orders that will help propel the U.S. expansion.  The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index eased

to 57 from the prior month’s 57.3, which was the highest since April 2011. Readings above 50 indicate growth. Other data showed construction spending rose more than forecast in November (ever so slightly).

 

Economic Stuff

Period

Economic Survey

Actual Reported

Original Prior

Revised Prior

Initial Jobless Claims

Dec 28

344K

339K

338K

341K

Continuing Claims

Dec 21

2900K

2833K

2923K

2931K

Markit US PMI Final

Dec

54.7

55

54.7

--

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

Dec 29

--

-28.7

-27.4

--

ISM Manufacturing

Dec

56.8

57

57.3

--

ISM Prices Paid

Dec

53

53.5

52.5

--

Construction Spending MoM

Nov

0.006

0.01

0.008

0.009

 

The stock market opened the new year on a down note.  Not much good to say about this.

 

Description

Ticker

Last

Change

% Chg Today

% Chg 1Year

 

STOCK MARKETS

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

INDU Index

16441.350

-135.3100

-0.8163

25.4668

 

S&P 500 Index

SPX Index

1831.980

-16.3800

-0.8862

28.4527

 

NASDAQ 100 Index

NDX Index

3563.567

-28.4290

-0.7915

33.9218

 

NASDAQ Composite Index

CCMP Index

4143.070

-33.5200

-0.8026

37.2098

 

Russell 3000 Index

RAY Index

1098.290

-10.0000

-0.9023

29.7648

 

Russell 1000 Index (Large Cap)

RIY Index

1021.250

-9.1100

-0.8842

29.2885

 

Russell 2000 Index (Small Cap)

RTY Index

1150.720

-12.9200

-1.1103

35.4824

 

Wilshire 5000 Total Market

W5000 Index

19533.840

-172.1900

-0.8738

30.2681

 

TREASURIES

% Yield

 

 

 

 

 

3 Month Treasury

0.0659

 

-0.0050

-7.6923

 

 

6 Month Treasury

0.0964

 

0.0000

0.0000

 

 

2 Year Treasury

0.3801

99.742

0.0000

0.0000

 

 

5 Year Treasury

1.7230

98.945

0.0938

0.0948

 

 

10 Year Treasury

2.9909

97.969

0.3281

0.3361

 

 

30 Year Treasury

3.9221

96.984

0.7813

0.8121

 

 

ENERGY

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil, Brent Index

Brent Crude

107.780

-3.0200

-2.7256

2.9802

 

Crude Oil, Louisiana Lt. Sweet

LA Lt Sweet

100.340

-2.5800

-2.5068

-10.3100

 

Natural Gas, Henry Hub Index

Nat Gas

4.305

0.0750

1.7731

8.4362

 

PRECIOUS METALS

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spot Gold $/oz

GOLD

1225.360

24.4600

2.0368

-27.3614

 

Spot Silver $/oz

SILVER

20.025

0.6695

3.4591

-35.4721

 

CURRENCIES

 

 

 

 

 

 

Euro

EUR Curncy

0.732

0.0049

0.6742

-3.5338

 

Japanese Yen

JPY Curncy

104.680

-0.5700

-0.5416

-16.5648

 

British Pound

GBP Curncy

0.608

0.0045

0.7455

-1.1702

 

Swiss Franc

CHF Curncy

0.899

0.0073

0.8186

2.0910

 

Canadian Dollar

CAD Curncy

1.067

0.0025

0.2349

-7.6858

 

Chinese Renminbi

CNY Curncy

6.050

-0.0009

-0.0149

3.1078

 

FOREIGN INDICIES

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURO STOXX 600 INDEX

EUROPE

325.820

-2.4400

-0.7433

16.4974

 

EURO STOXX TOTAL MARKET

EUROPE

318.860

-2.2600

-0.7038

16.8927

 

FTSE 100 INDEX

UK

6717.910

-31.1800

-0.4620

13.9052

 

CAC 40 INDEX

FRANCE

4227.280

-68.6700

-1.5985

16.0999

 

DAX INDEX

GERMANY

9400.040

-152.1200

-1.5925

23.4834

 

NIKKEI 225 INDEX

JAPAN

16291.310

112.3700

0.6945

56.7198

 

HANG SENG INDEX

HONG KONG

23340.050

33.6600

0.1444

-0.2502

 

TEL AVIV 100 INDEX

ISRAEL

2109.387

-6.5910

-0.3115

-7.0398

 

SHANGHAI COMP INDEX

CHINA

2109.387

-6.5910

-0.3115

-7.0398

 

RUSSIAN RTS INDEX

RUSSIA

1442.160

-0.5700

-0.0395

-5.5548

 

 

Last

Chg Today

% Chg Today

3 Mo Tot Ret

6 Mo Tot Ret

YTD Tot Ret

S&P 500 INDEX

1831.980

-16.380

-0.8862

8.7163

14.690

-0.872

S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETION

527.440

-2.659

-0.5016

9.3656

17.808

-0.502

S&P 500 CONSUMER STAPLES

437.820

-4.800

-1.0845

7.0889

7.395

-1.085

S&P 500 ENERGY

643.160

-8.510

-1.3059

6.0834

11.571

-1.306

S&P 500 FINANCIALS

293.100

-1.610

-0.5463

8.9856

12.236

-0.493

S&P 500 HEALTH CARE

638.750

-3.550

-0.5527

8.3370

16.786

-0.552

S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS

446.640

-5.820

-1.2863

11.6430

22.229

-1.286

S&P 500 INFO TECHNOLOGY

579.240

-6.240

-1.0658

10.8975

18.506

-1.036

S&P 500 MATERIALS

289.560

-2.080

-0.7132

9.0648

20.633

-0.713

S&P 500 TELECOM SERVICES

154.620

-0.900

-0.5787

4.5881

-0.172

-0.577

S&P 500 UTILITIES

190.230

-2.980

-1.5424

0.6983

2.795

-1.544

 

 

----------------------

“Today is the first day of the rest of the year.”  ~ John Broussard

 

John Broussard

Assistant State Treasurer

Chief Investment Officer

State of Louisiana

Department of the Treasury

225-342-0013

jbroussard@treasury.state.la.us

 

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