Am I the only one that feels like there are 2 Monday’s in this week?
The stock market opened the new year on a down note. Does that indicate anything? Well, today it does. For the year, not so much. But here are some market return barometers that have better predictive history:
· As goes the first 5 trading days of the year, so goes the year. In the last 36 years this has an 80% predictive rate.
· As goes January, so goes the year. Since 1950 this has an 88% predictive rate.
There is a consensus emerging on the street that the market returns for 2014 will be around 8% to 10%. Sounds good and plausible because since 1926 when modern market data on the U.S. market began the average gain on U.S. stocks has been 10.1%. Except there is one problem. In those 88 years of data, the market has NEVER returned between 8% and 10%. Not once. It always has produced more or less. So hope for more, but be prepared for less.
Jobless claims decreased to the lowest level in a month as the volatility typical during the year-end holidays waned. Jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 339,000 in the period ended Dec. 28. The median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 344,000 claims. Firings will probably be limited this year as gains in business and consumer spending strengthen the economy. Further healing in the labor market may depend on lawmakers’ progress in budget negotiations this month, which would support business and consumer confidence and a willingness to add to staff.
Manufacturing grew in December at the second-fastest pace in more than two years, fueled by a gain in orders that will help propel the U.S. expansion. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index eased
to 57 from the prior month’s 57.3, which was the highest since April 2011. Readings above 50 indicate growth. Other data showed construction spending rose more than forecast in November (ever so slightly).
Economic Stuff | Period | Economic Survey | Actual Reported | Original Prior | Revised Prior |
Initial Jobless Claims | Dec 28 | 344K | 339K | 338K | 341K |
Continuing Claims | Dec 21 | 2900K | 2833K | 2923K | 2931K |
Markit US PMI Final | Dec | 54.7 | 55 | 54.7 | -- |
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | Dec 29 | -- | -28.7 | -27.4 | -- |
ISM Manufacturing | Dec | 56.8 | 57 | 57.3 | -- |
ISM Prices Paid | Dec | 53 | 53.5 | 52.5 | -- |
Construction Spending MoM | Nov | 0.006 | 0.01 | 0.008 | 0.009 |
The stock market opened the new year on a down note. Not much good to say about this.
Ticker | Last | Change | % Chg Today | % Chg 1Year | | |
STOCK MARKETS | | | | | | |
Dow Jones Industrial Average | INDU Index | 16441.350 | -135.3100 | -0.8163 | 25.4668 | |
S&P 500 Index | SPX Index | 1831.980 | -16.3800 | -0.8862 | 28.4527 | |
NASDAQ 100 Index | NDX Index | 3563.567 | -28.4290 | -0.7915 | 33.9218 | |
NASDAQ Composite Index | CCMP Index | 4143.070 | -33.5200 | -0.8026 | 37.2098 | |
Russell 3000 Index | RAY Index | 1098.290 | -10.0000 | -0.9023 | 29.7648 | |
Russell 1000 Index (Large Cap) | RIY Index | 1021.250 | -9.1100 | -0.8842 | 29.2885 | |
Russell 2000 Index (Small Cap) | RTY Index | 1150.720 | -12.9200 | -1.1103 | 35.4824 | |
Wilshire 5000 Total Market | W5000 Index | 19533.840 | -172.1900 | -0.8738 | 30.2681 | |
TREASURIES | % Yield | | | | | |
3 Month Treasury | 0.0659 | | -0.0050 | -7.6923 | | |
6 Month Treasury | 0.0964 | | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | | |
2 Year Treasury | 0.3801 | 99.742 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | | |
5 Year Treasury | 1.7230 | 98.945 | 0.0938 | 0.0948 | | |
10 Year Treasury | 2.9909 | 97.969 | 0.3281 | 0.3361 | | |
30 Year Treasury | 3.9221 | 96.984 | 0.7813 | 0.8121 | | |
ENERGY | | | | | | |
Crude Oil, Brent Index | Brent Crude | 107.780 | -3.0200 | -2.7256 | 2.9802 | |
Crude Oil, Louisiana Lt. Sweet | LA Lt Sweet | 100.340 | -2.5800 | -2.5068 | -10.3100 | |
Natural Gas, Henry Hub Index | Nat Gas | 4.305 | 0.0750 | 1.7731 | 8.4362 | |
PRECIOUS METALS | | | | | | |
Spot Gold $/oz | GOLD | 1225.360 | 24.4600 | 2.0368 | -27.3614 | |
Spot Silver $/oz | SILVER | 20.025 | 0.6695 | 3.4591 | -35.4721 | |
CURRENCIES | | | | | | |
Euro | EUR Curncy | 0.732 | 0.0049 | 0.6742 | -3.5338 | |
Japanese Yen | JPY Curncy | 104.680 | -0.5700 | -0.5416 | -16.5648 | |
British Pound | GBP Curncy | 0.608 | 0.0045 | 0.7455 | -1.1702 | |
Swiss Franc | CHF Curncy | 0.899 | 0.0073 | 0.8186 | 2.0910 | |
Canadian Dollar | CAD Curncy | 1.067 | 0.0025 | 0.2349 | -7.6858 | |
Chinese Renminbi | CNY Curncy | 6.050 | -0.0009 | -0.0149 | 3.1078 | |
FOREIGN INDICIES | | | | | | |
EURO STOXX 600 INDEX | EUROPE | 325.820 | -2.4400 | -0.7433 | 16.4974 | |
EURO STOXX TOTAL MARKET | EUROPE | 318.860 | -2.2600 | -0.7038 | 16.8927 | |
FTSE 100 INDEX | UK | 6717.910 | -31.1800 | -0.4620 | 13.9052 | |
CAC 40 INDEX | FRANCE | 4227.280 | -68.6700 | -1.5985 | 16.0999 | |
DAX INDEX | GERMANY | 9400.040 | -152.1200 | -1.5925 | 23.4834 | |
NIKKEI 225 INDEX | JAPAN | 16291.310 | 112.3700 | 0.6945 | 56.7198 | |
HANG SENG INDEX | HONG KONG | 23340.050 | 33.6600 | 0.1444 | -0.2502 | |
TEL AVIV 100 INDEX | ISRAEL | 2109.387 | -6.5910 | -0.3115 | -7.0398 | |
SHANGHAI COMP INDEX | CHINA | 2109.387 | -6.5910 | -0.3115 | -7.0398 | |
RUSSIAN RTS INDEX | RUSSIA | 1442.160 | -0.5700 | -0.0395 | -5.5548 | |
| Last | Chg Today | % Chg Today | 3 Mo Tot Ret | 6 Mo Tot Ret | YTD Tot Ret |
S&P 500 INDEX | 1831.980 | -16.380 | -0.8862 | 8.7163 | 14.690 | -0.872 |
S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETION | 527.440 | -2.659 | -0.5016 | 9.3656 | 17.808 | -0.502 |
S&P 500 CONSUMER STAPLES | 437.820 | -4.800 | -1.0845 | 7.0889 | 7.395 | -1.085 |
S&P 500 ENERGY | 643.160 | -8.510 | -1.3059 | 6.0834 | 11.571 | -1.306 |
S&P 500 FINANCIALS | 293.100 | -1.610 | -0.5463 | 8.9856 | 12.236 | -0.493 |
S&P 500 HEALTH CARE | 638.750 | -3.550 | -0.5527 | 8.3370 | 16.786 | -0.552 |
S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS | 446.640 | -5.820 | -1.2863 | 11.6430 | 22.229 | -1.286 |
S&P 500 INFO TECHNOLOGY | 579.240 | -6.240 | -1.0658 | 10.8975 | 18.506 | -1.036 |
S&P 500 MATERIALS | 289.560 | -2.080 | -0.7132 | 9.0648 | 20.633 | -0.713 |
S&P 500 TELECOM SERVICES | 154.620 | -0.900 | -0.5787 | 4.5881 | -0.172 | -0.577 |
S&P 500 UTILITIES | 190.230 | -2.980 | -1.5424 | 0.6983 | 2.795 | -1.544 |
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“Today is the first day of the rest of the year.” ~ John Broussard
John Broussard
Assistant State Treasurer
Chief Investment Officer
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
225-342-0013
jbroussard@treasury.state.la.us
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