It's The Economy Stupid: Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Import Prices

Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Import Prices

 

Index Futures Slide, Signaling Fourth Day of Losses.   In early trading before the markets open, U.S. stock futures fell, indicating the first four-day slide for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index this year, as investors awaited a retail-sales report amid speculation a strengthening economy may prompt the Federal Reserve to pare stimulus.  Which of course is kinda, sorta, counter intuitive.  Wouldn’t a stronger economy mean that companies, and therefore their stocks, be doing better???  And don’t we want the Fed to stop intervening in the market???

 

You know what I say?  C’est la vie!  Laissez les bon temps rouler!  It’s gonna do what it’s gonna do.  Invest in good companies.  Avoid taking flyers.  Take prudent risks.

 

Economic Event	Period	Economic Survey	Actual Reported	Original Prior	Revised Prior
Advance Retail Sales	MAY	0.4%	0.6%	0.1%
Retail Sales Less Autos	MAY	0.3%	0.3%	-0.1%	0.0%
Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas	MAY	0.3%	0.3%	0.6%	0.5%
Retail Sales "Control Group"	MAY	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%
Initial Jobless Claims	JUN 8	346K	346K	346K
Continuing Claims	JUN 1	2978K	2973K	2952K	2971K
Import Price Index MoM	MAY	0.0%	-0.6%	-0.5%	-0.7%
Import Price Index YoY	MAY	-1.4%	-1.9%	-2.6%	-2.7%

 

RETAIL SALES

Retail sales in the U.S. rose more than forecast in May, showing job gains and lower borrowing costs are encouraging consumers to spend.  The 0.6 percent increase was the biggest in three months and followed a 0.1 percent gain in April, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 83 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.4 percent advance. The figures used to calculate economic growth, which exclude categories such as automobiles, climbed 0.3 percent.  Interest rates held down by the Federal Reserve’s record monetary stimulus are bolstering car sales in the face of higher taxes and limited income growth. Higher stock and home prices are shoring up confidence, driving orders at retailers such as Gap Inc. and underpinning the household purchases that account for about 70 percent of the economy.

 

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS

Fewer Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, showing companies are refraining from firing workers even as growth cools this quarter.  Jobless claims dropped by 12,000 to 334,000 in the week ended June 8 from 346,000 the prior period, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 51 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 346,000. No states were estimated and there was nothing unusual in the data, a Labor Department spokesman said as the figures were released.  Fewer dismissals mean companies have pared staff about as much as they can, which puts employers in a position to add to headcounts should sales improve in the second half of the year.

Payrolls rose more than forecast last month, even as federal spending cuts and higher payroll taxes may be holding back the economic expansion.

 

IMPORT PRICES

U.S. May Import Prices Fell 0.6% vs Est. 0.0% Unchanged.  May import prices fell 0.6% after falling 0.7% in the prior month

  * Import prices forecast range -0.5% to 0.7% from 43 economists

  * Import prices ex-fuels fell 0.3% vs falling 0.2% in April

  * Export prices fell 0.5% vs falling 0.7% in April

  * Import prices fell 1.9% Y/y in May vs est. down 1.4%

  * Import prices ex fuel and food fell 1.2% Y/y in May