In response to several inquiries I have received, let me give this some further clarification:
From the sources that I believe to be reliable (re: not the Washington DC press, but actual financial & economic analysts), it appears that the Feds have enough money on had to make it through October. November is another story. I've seen nothing that indicates the Feds have enough money on hand to make any payments at, or after, the beginning of November. So it's pretty unanimous that November 1st is the real drop dead date. Which probably means that congress would have to do something in October in order to make any payments after the October 31st security payments have been made.
State of Louisiana
Department of the Treasury
From: John Broussard
Sent: Monday, October 07, 2013 9:34 AM
Subject: It's The Economy Stupid: Key dates for the debt ceiling
See the message below from Oppenheimer. The opinions are from their guy.
This is probably repetitious for most of you, but here are the key dates for the debt ceiling/default calendar:
10/17: Treasury says they will be out of borrowing authority. They will still have 25 to 30 bln in cash that will keep the government going, but new auctions will be suspended. Bill maturities will likely be paid through 10/31 from incoming revenues.
10/21: The first auctions that will have been cancelled -- there will be no 3 or 6 month bills issued and the 1 month bill auction scheduled for ther 22nd will be cancelled.
10/24: The announcement for new 2s, 5s and 7s. If no debt ceiling deal is reached, these will be postponed.
10/31: Coupon and maturity payments are due. Most economists project that the Treasury will have enough money to make these payments.
11/1: $70 bln of Social Security and Medicare payments are due. There is no way the Treasury will be able to make these payments. To me this will be the breaking point for Congress, as the outrage would be unimaginable.